According to British and Ukrainian intelligence, Russian troops have virtually lost the fight for Bakhmut.
On the day before the first anniversary of the war, Russia still has to gain any significant victory over Ukraine. Of the two biggest cities they captured, Mariupol and Kherson, one was reduced to rubble by the fight and the other has been re-taken.
Russian president Vladimir Putin and his general staff hoped to gain a crucial breakthrough in Bakhmut, a major railway hub in the Donbass. The Battle of Bakhmut has been raging for the entire winter, and it still massacres hundreds of soldiers on both sides every day.
A few weeks back, it seemed that the Russians were finally gaining the upper hand. They conquered the village of Soledar, a few kilometers north of Bakhmut, and were closing in on Vuhledar.
Were Vuhledar to fall, Ukraine would have lost one of its main supply centers in the region and would have likely be followed by Bakhmut.
But, as of Thursday, Russian attacks have been repelled despite their ferociousness. UK intelligence reported that heavy fighting has been going on in Vuhledar today.
“Its commander, Colonel General Rustam Muradov, is likely under intense pressure to improve results following harsh criticism from the Russian nationalist community after previous setbacks,” said the British daily summary. “However, it is unlikely that Muradov has a striking force capable of achieving a breakthrough.”
Mutiny on the front
Therefore, at least according to British intelligence, the Battle of Bakhmut will end as another failure for the Russian army.
And such a claim seems to be substantiated by the fact that some Russian troops are refusing to fight. The news was reported by the Ukrainian General Staff on Thursday.
Apparently, troops of the Cossack Department deployed in Vuhledar are refusing to take part in the offensive any longer. They cited heavy losses and repeated failure in capturing the objective as reasons.
It must be noted that Vuhledar is also an important gateway for the Ukrainian south. If Ukraine wishes to reconquer Crimea, passing through Vuhledar is the likely better option.
Kherson might be a bigger hub and closer to Crimea, but the presence of the Dnieper river acts as a major natural defense for Russia. Between Vuhledar and the Crimea, on the other hand, there is virtually indefensible land consisting of flat planes.
Therefore, the defense of Vuhledar isn’t important only for the troops in Bakhmut, almost completely encircled by Russia. It is also a crucial point for future Ukrainian offensives.
And once Western tanks finally join the Ukrainian ranks, such an offensive might actually become a reality.
