What should we expect from the Asian continent in 2024? There are at least 4 economic trends to monitor with the utmost attention.
The most relevant geopolitical dossiers, the most dangerous epicenters of tension, and some of the main global supply chains. The two most populous countries on the planet, as well as some of the world’s fastest-growing economies and the most attractive investment markets. Asia embodies this and much more, and will continue to do so into 2024. What to expect from the Asian continent in the coming year?
There are at least 4 economic trends to monitor with the utmost attention.
China: in search of a new economic paradigm
China’s economic growth could slow next year to 4.6%, following a forecast expansion of 5.2% in 2023, amid a slump, Nikkei Asian Review reported. Specifically, S&P Global Ratings assumes a Chinese growth rate of 4.6% in 2024, but holds as a reserve a possible downward scenario of 2.9%, depending on what happens to real estate sector. Therefore, uncertainties remain regarding Beijing’s ability to resolve challenges in the real estate market, especially in the delivery of homes to buyers. The country’s major developers, such as China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings, are highly indebted and continue to face financial difficulties. In such a scenario, China will focus even more on the so-called Dual Circulation Strategy, a strategy launched by the Chinese government aimed at reorienting the country’s economy by giving priority to domestic consumption while remaining open to international trade and investments. The Dragon’s objective is clear: to become as independent as possible in the most strategic sectors.
The Glass Ceiling of India
Will 2024 finally be India’s year? According to the Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India, the country will remain the fastest-growing economy in the world next year, on the back of strong consumer demand that will lead to a recovery in investment in sectors such as construction, hospitality, and infrastructure, including railways and aviation. In a context of global economic volatility, the Indian economy will present a picture of resilience. However, concerns about food inflation and slow growth in rural production will remain. In any case, it will be necessary to understand when the prime minister Narendra Modi - with a third mandate almost in his pocket - will be able to propose New Delhi to foreign investors as a valid alternative to Beijing. Should the mission be completed, the Elephant could finally unlock itself after years of economic miracles announced but never occurred.
Asean warms up its engines
Economic growth in Southeast Asia over the next year could come as a pleasant surprise. Of course, situations change from country to country but the trend seems to be promising. HSBC believes collective growth for the major “ASEAN-6” economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam will hit 4.6% in 2024, up from 4% seen this year. As mentioned, the prospects for this growth differ for each nation: they range from 2.4% for Singapore to 6.3% for Vietnam. Some regional governments, such as Indonesian, Cambodian, and Vietnamese, will also be able to consolidate interesting advantages deriving from the US-China dispute.
Japan and Korea: regional or global powers?
Finally, investors should pay attention to Japan and South Korea. Both countries were enlisted by the United States in an anti-Chinese and anti-North Korean perspective. However, both Tokyo and Seoul are starting to think in terms of global powers. The Japanese, after years of near anonymity on the international scene, are ready to re-emerge from a sort of self-induced paralysis. It is no coincidence that Fumio Kishida’s government has begun to consolidate relations with the countries of Central Asia and South-East Asia, marking a decisive return to the international scene. Furthermore, the military strengthening gives the Japanese nation a further wild card to play. For South Korea, the time has come to capitalize on the enormous soft power spread throughout the world. In short, 2024 could be a key year for Seoul and Tokyo too.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-01-03 06:39:00. Original title: Cina, Asean e non solo: che 2024 economico sarà per l’Asia?
