Copper opened October higher, buoyed by Chinese factory activity returning to expansion territory and a fresh drop in inventories in Shanghai warehouses. In the background, a structural problem that has weighed on the red metal for over a year remains: the slow, repeatedly delayed restart of Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, one of the world’s largest copper deposits, after the deadly landslide of September 2025.
Copper rises on Chinese data
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched $14,453 per metric ton on October 1, 2026, up 0.1% on the session and close to the roughly 8% gain posted in the third quarter. The all-time high of $14,875 was reached on September 10.
Prices were mainly supported by China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August. It is the second consecutive monthly increase and a return above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in industrial activity. NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui described the manufacturing business climate as “further improved in September,” as reported by Xinhua.
According to Reuters, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses also fell 17.8% to 38,744 metric tons, the lowest level since January 2024.
«Although uncertainty over global growth and trade policy remains a factor to consider, structural demand trends and subdued supply growth should continue to support prices in the fourth quarter,» said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.
The Grasberg bottleneck, pushed back to early 2028
Behind the resilience in prices lies a deeper supply problem. In September 2025, a mudslide hit the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits, controlled by U.S.-based Freeport-McMoRan. Seven workers died.
Output, initially almost wiped out, has stabilized in 2026 at between 40% and 50% of normal capacity, but the restart schedule has slipped several times. According to the company’s latest update, Grasberg should reach 65% of capacity in the second half of 2026 and 80% by mid-2027, and return close to full capacity by the end of 2027, with a full recovery pushed back to early 2028.
«The company aims to return to full capacity by early 2028,» said Tony Wenas, CEO of Freeport Indonesia.
Why it matters
Copper is considered a leading indicator of global industrial demand because it is used in electrical cables, power grids, electric vehicles and data centers. Structurally high prices mean higher costs for makers of electrical and electronic components and for energy-transition infrastructure. For investors with direct or indirect exposure to mining and industrials through stocks or commodity ETFs, the combination of improving Chinese demand and supply constrained by Grasberg is a supportive factor for prices in the short to medium term. Even so, copper remains historically more volatile than the structural-scarcity narrative suggests.
Disclaimer: The information and views in this article should not be used as the sole or main basis for investment decisions. Readers are fully responsible for their own investment choices, as only they know their risk tolerance and time horizon. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on October 01, 2026 as «Il rame sale sui dati cinesi, ma lo shock di Grasberg tiene l’offerta sotto pressione fino al 2028». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
