Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Putin’s regime. At the moment, the fighting is concentrated 500 km from Moscow.
Last night, the mercenary group PMC Wagner launched what appears to be a military coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Telegram "There are 25.000 of us and we are ready to die".
The Wagner group is the best equipped and most elite fighting force in Russia. They were responsible for the only two major Russian victories during the invasion of Ukraine: Mariupol and Bakhmut.
After the conquest of Bakhmut, the Wagner group withdrew from Russian territory, seemingly abandoning the fight.
Tensions have mounted between Prigozhin and Putin. The Wagner leader denounced many times the Kremlin’s lack of support, with threats of giving up Bakhmut if conditions were not met. Such conditions often required more ammunition and military equipment to be transferred to the Wagner group.
What is happening in Russia
As of 12:04 GMT, the Wagner group occupied several positions on the Rostov-Voronezh line. Rostov is a large city (over 1 million inhabitants) where Prigozhin seemingly established his headquarters.
Voronezh, another major town 500km from Moscow, appears to be the furthest point under Wagner’s control.
At the moment, fighting between the Wagner group and the Russian army is concentrated around Voronezh. Videos on Telegram show heavy bombing from both sides. According to one source, a Russian helicopter was shot down by Wagner anti-aircraft guns.
Moscow is preparing its defenses. Every public event in Russia has been canceled and strategic highways leading to Moscow are currently under Russian army control.
It’s unclear whether or not Prigozhin has any chance of getting to Moscow. Different sources claim some Russian columns are defecting to Prigozhin, but nothing is confirmed yet.
What will happen in Ukraine
Whether or not Prigozhin’s coup succeeds, Putin’s position in the Russian establishment is heavily compromised. The Ukrainian counter-offensive is still on its way, albeit slower than expected, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine might take advantage of the situation to pump up their attacks.
It’s still too early to assess the situation accurately. In any case, this coup d’état shows heavy dissatisfaction with Putin’s rule and in the war.
Russia has gone through four civil wars in the past 120 years: in 1905, two in 1917, and in 1991. Each one was brought forward by a powerful minority group even though the general population still retained trust in the establishment.
Is this another Russian revolution? Will it be successful or will it be a failure?
At the moment, we can only look at history. Of those four revolutions, only two succeeded in the long term, and in both cases the army was far away, fighting a foreign war. A foreign war that, in both cases, Russia was losing.
