World Economic Outlook report released today. Global economic growth forecasts revised downwards.
The IMF announced that it has confirmed its growth estimates for Italy’s GDP at +0.7% for 2024 and that it has simultaneously cut its forecasts for 2025, from the +0.9% initially forecast last July to +0.8%. The new outlook on the pace of expansion of Italy’s gross domestic product is contained in the "World Economic Outlook", the report dedicated to estimates on the global economy that the Washington institution published today, Tuesday 22 October 2024.
The International Monetary Fund also announced today its new forecasts on Italian public accounts: as regards the debt-to-GDP ratio, the IMF’s expectations are for an increase to 136.9% in 2024 and 138.7% in 2025, compared to 134.6% last year. Even worse in 2029, for which the monstrous estimate is of a debt-to-GDP ratio of up to 142.3%.
Italy’s deficit-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 4% in 2024 and 3.8% next year.
Debt-to-GDP: IMF-Eurostat-Istat estimates while Meloni speaks of "safe accounts"
Just today new indications on Italy’s debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP also arrived from Eurostat and Istat: ironically, on the same day that the Meloni government turned two.
In the video message with which she commented on the anniversary of the birth of her government, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proudly claimed, among other things, that, in her opinion, the executive has put the accounts in safety.
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“ We have secured the state accounts and relaunched economic growth and employment,” said the prime minister, recalling the date of October 22, 2022, “exactly two years ago,” when she had “taken oath as president of the Council of Ministers.”
The photograph that emerged from Eurostat tells a different story, although Italy must certainly be given credit for trying, at least, to put a stop to the long-standing growth of its public debt.
Also keep an eye on what emerged today from Istat, which announced that it had slightly revised upwards the debt-to-GDP ratio of Italy for 2023 and 2022.
The news came with the publication, by the National Institute of Statistics, of the “Notification on net borrowing and PA debt” which was sent to the European Commission.
The document states that, in 2023, Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 134.8%, compared to the 134.6% estimated in September, when the institute had revised it downwards from the previous 137.3%.
The debt-to-GDP ratio for 2022 was also revised upwards, from 138.1% to 138.3%.
Istat instead reiterated Italy’s deficit-to-GDP ratios for 2022 and 2023, at 8.1% and 7.2% respectively.
IMF cuts global GDP growth forecast for 2025
Returning to the IMF, in particular to the growth prospects for the entire global economy, in its World Economic Outlook, the Fund reiterated its estimates of global GDP growth of +3.2% on an annual basis in 2024, announcing however that it had cut its forecast for global GDP in 2025, from the previously forecast growth of +3.3% to an expected pace now of +3.2%.
In particular, the IMF has revised upwards the outlook on US GDP, simultaneously lowering the estimates for China’s growth.
The institution now forecasts US GDP to grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, up from its previous estimates in July of +2.6% and +1.9%, respectively. The outlook for China’s 2024 GDP growth was cut to +4.8% from +5%.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-10-22 17:43:37. Original title: Pil Italia: FMI taglia stime crescita 2025. L’outlook su debito e deficit
