All eyes on the Milan bourse were on Leonardo shares after the release of the group’s second-quarter and first-half 2026 results. The stock is up roughly 2.5%, pushing above the €55 mark.

In the first six months of the year, the group led by CEO Lorenzo Mariani reported adjusted net income of €476 million (about $514 million), sharply higher (+74.4% versus the first half of 2025), driven by the EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes and amortization) trend and lower net financial charges. EBITA came in at €780 million (about $842 million), against the €755 million expected, up 34.3% year over year, while revenue of €10 billion (about $10.8 billion) — in line with the analyst estimate of €9.9 billion — jumped 12.2% year over year.

Orders reached €16.3 billion (about $17.6 billion), better than the €15.3 billion forecast and up 44.6% year over year. The results led the defense giant to raise its guidance on orders, EBITA and FOCF (free operating cash flow). The question for investors now is what happens next to Leonardo shares. What are the target prices on the stock? How will the analyst consensus shift after these numbers?

Leonardo stock: mostly Buy/Overweight ratings. Jefferies reaffirms its call and target price after the results

Analyst sentiment remains constructive. The consensus assigns the stock a Buy rating, with 12 Buy/Overweight recommendations, 6 Hold/Neutral and no Sell calls.

On average, the mean target price stands at €68.33, ranging from a low of €60 to a high of €80.

But the release of the results makes those figures subject to change, as several analysts will reconsider their views — or confirm them, as Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie has already done. Following the half-year report, she reiterated her Buy rating on Leonardo shares and confirmed a target price of €68.

Lemarie reaffirmed her optimism on Leonardo, noting that the defense giant delivered a solid operating performance in the second quarter, as confirmed by EBITA that came in about 5% above consensus thanks to improving margins.

According to the analyst, the improvement is due in part to the gradual recovery of the Aerostructures division and to the strong showing of the Electronic Defense & Eurofighter segment, both contributing to a more robust profitability profile.

Management also raised its underlying guidance — now including the IDV (Iveco Defence Vehicles) business — with higher expectations on orders and improved estimates for EBITA and free cash flow, while revenue targets were left unchanged.

Lemarie added that, in her view, the target of an EBITA margin of around 10% is conservative, given that in the first half alone the group already posted a 130-basis-point improvement — a factor that leads the Jefferies analyst to believe there is further room to grow.

Views on Leonardo from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citi and Goldman Sachs

Some analysts are even more optimistic. Among them, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan stand out.

Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating and remains the most bullish on target price: its analysts see a run for Leonardo shares to €80, even though it recently trimmed the target from a previous €83 while keeping its positive view on the defense sector.

JPMorgan is also positive, with an Overweight rating, though it too lowered its target on Leonardo shares from €77 to €70.

Citi has a Buy rating and a target price of €69, while Goldman Sachs has a Neutral rating at €63.

Also worth noting is the view from Barclays, which in early July confirmed its Overweight rating while cutting its target by 7%, from a previous €74 to €69.

Three scenarios for Leonardo shares: base case, bull case and bear case

As with other stocks, Barclays analysts laid out in their report — alongside their base-case scenario centered on a €69 target price — an upside and a downside case, that is, the most bullish and the most bearish scenarios for Leonardo stock.

In a dedicated report on Leonardo, Barclays Research published its worst- and best-case scenarios for the shares, estimating a slump to €41 and a rally to €82, respectively.

The bull case bets on Leonardo shares jumping to €82, a value that would reflect «revenue growth at a low-teens annual rate (roughly 10%–13%) over 2025–2030, versus the +10% of the base case, accompanied by slightly better margins than our central estimates».

Barclays explained that «applying an EV/EBIT multiple of about 14 times to the resulting 2030 estimates and discounting them at an 8% rate, we arrive at a valuation of €82 per share».

In the downside case, which foresees the shares slumping to €41, Barclays assumes revenue growth between low and mid single digits (LSD–MSD, roughly 1%–6%) over 2025–2030, versus the +10% of the base case, with operating margins below expectations — that is, under 10% against the 12% assumed in the base case.

On those assumptions, «applying an EV/EBIT multiple of about 14 times to the resulting 2030 estimates and discounting them at an 8% rate produces a valuation of €41 per share».

These two outcomes — a rally to €82 (not far, however, from Morgan Stanley’s €80 valuation) and a slide to €41 — are considered extreme by Barclays itself.

But for any investor, or would-be investor, looking at Leonardo stock — factoring in the doubts about how the defense sector can keep confirming its momentum — it is essential to weigh every scenario, from the worst to the best.

A slump to €41 would translate into a decline of roughly -25.5% from current levels of around €55. A rally to €82 would be worth +49.1%. The consensus, it is worth recalling, points to a value of €68.33, betting on a gain for the shares of +24.2%.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Laura Naka Antonelli on July 31, 2026 as «Azioni Leonardo dopo i conti, quanto può salire ancora il titolo? I 3 scenari che gli investitori devono conoscere». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.