U.S. earnings season gets into full swing next week and, as tradition dictates, the big banks are leading the way. Twenty-five S&P 500 companies, just under 5% of the index, are due to report between Monday, October 12 and Friday, October 16. It is a short list, but it includes some of the heaviest names in the financial sector and has the power to set the tone for the entire season.
According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings for the third quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 29.5% year over year, up from the 26.7% estimated at the end of June. If confirmed, it would be the third consecutive quarter of growth above 25% and the eighth straight in double digits. The catch for investors is that these very high expectations raise the bar: beating estimates may not be enough.
What analysts expect from U.S. earnings
Analysts normally cut their forecasts as a quarter progresses, making it easier for companies to beat them. This time the opposite has happened. Between June 30 and September 30, third-quarter earnings-per-share estimates rose 1.4%, whereas over the past five years they fell 2.2% on average over the same period.
Companies have also been unusually upbeat: of the 116 index members that have issued guidance for the quarter, 72 (62%) gave positive guidance, against a five-year average of 40%. On the revenue side, the consensus points to growth of 12.3% year over year.
One data point cuts against the bubble fears, though: the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to 19.0, below its five-year average (19.8) and just under its ten-year average (19.1), and down from 20.4 at the end of June. In other words, earnings have grown faster than prices. (Source: FactSet.)
The Fed factor
This is the first round of bank earnings since the U.S. central bank reversed course. On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4%, in a unanimous vote. It was the first hike since July 2023 and is not expected to be the last: in the September projections, the median FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) member sees rates at 4.1% at the end of 2026, versus the 3.8% estimated in June, implying another increase by December.
For commercial banks, higher rates mean, at least initially, a wider net interest margin. But the same hike weighs on loan demand and on mergers-and-acquisitions activity, as Bank of America’s chief executive himself has acknowledged. The balance between those two effects is one of the big questions of the week.
U.S. earnings calendar, week of October 12-16, 2026
These are the main events, with the consensus for earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Banks usually report before the market opens on Wall Street.
| Date | Company | Expected EPS ($) | Expected revenue ($ billion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue., Oct. 13 | JPMorgan Chase | 5.82 | 50.6 |
| Tue., Oct. 13 | Goldman Sachs | 16.42 | 17.6 |
| Tue., Oct. 13 | Citigroup | 2.68 | 23.7 |
| Tue., Oct. 13 | Wells Fargo | 1.84 | 22.4 |
| Tue., Oct. 13 | Johnson & Johnson | 2.90 | 25.3 |
| Wed., Oct. 14 | Bank of America | 1.18 | 31.2 |
| Wed., Oct. 14 | Morgan Stanley | 3.13 | 20.4 |
| Wed., Oct. 14 | BlackRock | 14.28 | 7.4 |
| Thu., Oct. 15 | Charles Schwab | 1.67 | 7.2 |
| Thu., Oct. 15 | PNC Financial | 4.91 | 6.6 |
| Thu., Oct. 15 | ManpowerGroup | 1.01 | 4.9 |
| Fri., Oct. 16 | Travelers | 6.77 | 11.3 |
| Fri., Oct. 16 | Citizens Financial | 1.40 | 2.3 |
Source: consensus aggregated by Digrin as of October 9, 2026. Estimates may vary between data providers.
Outside the U.S., but with enormous weight on the artificial intelligence theme, ASML (Wednesday, October 14) and TSMC (Thursday, October 15) are also due to report the same week, and their results will be read as a thermometer of chip demand.
The investment banking question
At Barclays’ financial services conference in mid-September, the heads of the big banks offered a preview of the quarter, and the signals pointed in opposite directions.
The alarm bell came from Bank of America. CEO Brian Moynihan forecast investment banking fees of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, versus $2 billion in the same quarter of 2025, and trading revenue essentially flat from $5.4 billion a year earlier. According to Moynihan, the entire investment banking market is down about 10%, and his bank could do slightly worse. The stock lost more than 5% in a single session, dragging the S&P 500 banks index down 2.7%.
Citigroup was more cautious but not negative: chief financial officer Gonzalo Luchetti pointed to “low single-digit” growth in investment banking revenue and “mid-single-digit” growth in trading, adding that September would be decisive.
JPMorgan’s tone was altogether different. Co-president Doug Petno estimated investment banking fees and markets revenue growing “in the mid-to-high teens” in percentage terms, describing M&A activity as being at its highest in some time. The forecast, he specified, assumes no serious market turbulence and already factors in the usual seasonal decline from the second quarter’s record.
Who is right? Industry data give the cautious camp some ammunition. According to Jefferies estimates, system-wide investment banking fees were still down roughly 15% year over year, on weak advisory and debt markets. Evercore’s monthly report for August also flagged quarter-to-date indicators below expectations, suggesting the consensus on investment banking and trading may be too generous.
The week could therefore reward individual institutions very differently. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, more exposed to the capital markets, are the most sensitive to a slowdown, while diversified groups such as JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citi can count on loan growth and net interest income to compensate.
BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Citizens and Manpower: who beats estimates regularly
For those looking for a statistical criterion, Bespoke Investment Group has isolated the companies reporting this week with a long history of results above expectations, followed by a rise in the stock on the first trading day afterward. Four names pass both filters (EPS above consensus at least 75% of the time and an average gain of at least 1% the day after earnings).
BlackRock has beaten estimates 82% of the time, with an average rise of 1.12% in the following session. The world’s largest asset manager will release third-quarter results on Wednesday, October 14, before the open. Wells Fargo recently initiated coverage of the stock with an overweight rating, calling it “the clear sector leader and a benchmark financial stock, with operating momentum that has recently accelerated.” Of the 20 analysts covering it, 18 recommend buying and 2 recommend holding; the average price target of $1,295.02 implies upside of 21.56% from the October 8 close ($1,065.35).
Also on Wednesday it is Morgan Stanley’s turn, which has topped estimates 80% of the time with an average gain of 1.06% after earnings. In July the investment bank posted a record second quarter for revenue and profit, driven by a 69% jump in equity trading revenue, while wealth management beat expectations. Analyst opinion is cooler here: of 26, 13 recommend buying, 12 holding and one selling. The average target is $224.11, 19.56% above Thursday’s $187.44.
On Thursday, October 15, ManpowerGroup reports. It has beaten estimates 82% of the time with an average rise of 1.2%: a name far from the spotlight, but also useful as a read on the state of the labor market. Citizens Financial Group closes the list on Friday, October 16, with an 81% success rate and the highest average gain of the group, 1.49%.
A warning is in order, however: a good track record guarantees nothing about the current quarter and, in a season in which estimates have been revised upward, even the “serial beaters” may find a higher bar than usual.
What to watch beyond earnings per share
EPS is the number that makes the headlines, but it is rarely what really moves bank stocks. Much more often the difference is made by the line items that show how the bank is responding to the change in the rate climate.
With the Fed tightening again, attention will turn first to net interest income, the difference between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays on deposits. More than the quarterly figure, guidance for the fourth quarter and for 2027 will matter, because that is where it will become clear whether the hike translates into wider margins or whether funding costs rise just as fast, cancelling out the benefit.
On the markets side, investment banking fees and trading revenue should be compared with the indications given in September rather than with the consensus. If JPMorgan hit the “mid-to-high teens” promised by Petno, the slowdown described by Bank of America would look like an isolated problem; if the numbers disappoint instead, Moynihan would be proved right, and the price would be paid above all by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Higher rates, however, do not weigh only on corporate finance deals. Sooner or later they are also felt on household and business balance sheets, which is why provisions for credit losses deserve a close look. So far the picture has held up well, to the point that Moynihan has spoken of consumers still willing to spend and of credit quality as good as it has been in a long time. An unexpected increase in reserves would be the first sign that the tightening is starting to bite.
Finally, much will be decided after the numbers are published. Management’s comments on the economic outlook and on share buyback plans come on the conference call, and it is often that call, more than the results, that sets the stock’s direction in the afternoon.
Disclaimer: The information and views in this article should not be used as the sole or main basis for investment decisions. Readers remain fully free in, and fully responsible for, their own investment choices, as only they know their risk tolerance and time horizon. The information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of public investment.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Flavia Provenzani on October 10, 2026 as «Wall Street, le banche aprono il calendario delle trimestrali. Chi può battere le attese e chi rischia?». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
