According to the latest Sipri report, the nine nuclear powers have 3,904 warheads ready for use, with Russia and the USA in the lead: what must happen for a nuclear war.
The nuclear war at this moment in history is perceived in two diametrically opposed ways: either as a possible and ever-closer catastrophe, or as a useful scarecrow that serves as a deterrent to avoid a global conflict.
Both interpretations are valid, considering that, on the one hand, the military activism of major powers has been evident since Russia invaded Ukraine. On the other hand, the specter of nuclear war has so far prevented a direct intervention by the United States and its Western allies, including Italy.
The underlying problem is that not even the most seasoned gambler would wager a cent on how the current Machiavellian international geopolitical scenario will evolve. Numerous delicate situations appear to be so intertwined that Pope Francis has aptly coined the term "third world war in pieces."
In fact, the concerns are not limited to the war in Ukraine. The conflict in the Holy Land could soon engulf the entire Middle East, not to mention the dozens of local conflicts in Africa where various power blocs play supporting roles, and the Taiwan issue, with China becoming increasingly aggressive towards the self-governing island.
In this fraught context, the latest report by the Sipri (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), released on 24 September 2024, seeks to map the atomic arsenals currently in existence. It highlights an alarming increase in the number of active and ready-to-use warheads, as though a nuclear war is dangerously imminent.
Nuclear war: 4,000 warheads ready for use
For decades, the specter of a nuclear war has served as the ultimate deterrent against a direct conflict involving the world’s major economic and military powers. However, the picture painted by Sipri is far from reassuring.
Among the nine recognized nuclear powers—United States, Russia, United Kingdom, China, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—there are currently 9,585 nuclear warheads globally, 3,904 of which are operational.
What deeply concerns the Swedish institute is that in the past year, there has been an increase of 100 operational warheads, a clear signal of escalating military tension.
The United States reportedly has 1,770 nuclear weapons ready for use out of a total of 3,708, while Russia has 1,710 ready out of 4,380. France accounts for 280 out of 290, and the United Kingdom 120 out of 225. For the first time, China has also put some of its warheads on alert.
Russia has recently updated its nuclear doctrine, specifying that warheads may be used as an “extreme measure and last resort for defense purposes” in the following scenarios:
Responding to a critical threat to the sovereignty or territorial integrity of Russia or Belarus.
Facing aggression by a non-nuclear state with the involvement or support of a nuclear state, which will be considered a joint attack.
In essence, if Ukraine were to attack Russian territory using a Western missile, Moscow could respond with nuclear force. If this doctrine is not merely a deterrent, then there is real cause for alarm.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-11-25 10:49:42. Original title: Guerra nucleare, 4.000 testate pronte in tutto il mondo: quando possono essere utilizzate
