Investing and portfolio allocation: how can investors maximize the returns on their savings?

What is the optimal portfolio structure, and how should capital be allocated across equities, bonds, ETFs, and gold?

Money.it interviewed Stanislav Polezhaev, founder of Bondfish and former investment banker, alongside Mehdi Zare, co-founder of Bina Capital and former Quantitative Analysis Manager at Capital One.

Both experts advised investors to prioritize a diversified portfolio strategy, considering the macroeconomic environment that has once again been destabilized by a major geopolitical shock: the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The escalation has reignited concerns already supported by recent macro data pointing to accelerating inflation and, consequently, a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment.

Both Polezhaev and Zare shared with Money.it their views on how investors should position portfolios under the current market regime, with allocations calibrated according to each investor’s risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Inflation shock and the new market regime

Mehdi Zare, CFA, Cofounder of Bina Capital noticed that “this is an inflation shock dressed up as a geopolitical one”, emphasizing how much the situation has changed since the beginning of the year:

“Markets came into 2026 expecting the Fed to cut. The energy disruption out of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil back above 100 dollars and kept inflation hot, and this week the Fed held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent while its own projections flipped from cuts toward a possible hike. The old reflex of buying long bonds whenever geopolitics gets scary is much weaker now, because the rate cut tailwind that made that trade work has gone”.

But what professional investors are doing?

Investors are still leaning into bonds, here’s why

Stanislav Polezhaev, founder of Bondfish, said that “mostly, wealth management companies we are working with still have at least 40% of portfolios in equity” .

At the same time, he noted that investors continue to show strong interest in fixed income:

“Investors are still leaning into bonds again simply because yields are finally worth having: a 10-year Treasury near 4.5%, a 10-year Italian BTP around 3.7% (and there are many high-yield bonds available on the market, mostly USD-denominated)”.

The former investment banker added that the “nice part about 2026 is that being defensive no longer means earning nothing ”, since “ safe pays 3–4.5% , and laddering your bond maturities helps manage both inflation and the risk of reinvesting at lower rates later”.

This bodes well for “a cautious, low-risk investor who would put capital preservation first”.

The Bondfish founder’s advice in this case is to allocate “something like two-thirds to three-quarters in high-quality short and intermediate bonds and cash (MMF mostly), with just a modest equity part for growth”.

“But be careful of high-yield credit, since they are paying only a thin premium over safer ones”

Polezhaev added that “a balanced, moderate investor is the classic case for a roughly 50–60% equities and 40–50% bonds core, built mostly from diversified ETFs and spread across regions and high-quality issuers, often with a 5–10% gold position now that institutions treat that as fairly normal”.

By contrast, “a higher-risk investor with a long horizon can carry a much heavier equity weight - 70–90% - plus growth themes and emerging markets, as long as they size positions sensibly”.

Be careful of “the riskiest bonds, high-yield credit”, that “are paying only a thin premium over safer ones right now, so you’re not being well rewarded for reaching down in quality”.

Stanislav Polezhaev (Bondfish): “The theme of the year is quality and carry”

In general and in the current macro environment, which asset classes are being favoured or reduced, and why?

As Stanislav Polezhaev put it:

“The theme of the year is quality and carry - getting paid a solid yield without taking heroic risks. So what’s in demand is high-quality bonds, both investment-grade corporates and short-to-intermediate government bonds, plus cash, gold (demand hit a record earlier this year and central banks keep buying), and quality equities. What’s being pared back is high-yield credit, where spreads are near multi-decade lows; very long-dated government bonds, which are so sensitive to rate moves; and the frothiest equities. The reason behind all of it is the rate backdrop. The Fed is holding at 3.50–3.75% and its own projections now lean toward a possible hike rather than cuts, and the ECB has just raised its deposit rate to 2.25%. When rates stay high for longer, you’re rewarded for owning quality income and penalised for owning long duration and weak credit”.

Medhi Zare presents the assets to invest in—and those to avoid—now

Mehdi Zare expressed a similar view recommending “short government bonds and cash, because they pay you to wait and keep your options open”.

He also said he favors “real assets and energy, as a hedge against the exact supply shock we are living through”, noting that “gold is doing its classic job as a store of value when both inflation and geopolitics are in play”.

Additionally, Zare highlighted “quality companies with real pricing power, the ones that can pass higher costs to customers without losing them”.

Conversely, he warned on “long duration bonds, which get punished if the Fed hikes rather than cuts”.

The same risk applies to the “most expensive growth names, where the entire valuation rests on cheap money coming back”.

Finally, according to Zare, investors should be aware of “companies heavily exposed to higher energy costs or to a slowing China, which is already showing up in places like the European auto sector”.

He then noticed that the reason “behind all of it is that a single variable flipped. We went from a disinflation and rate cut story to a sticky inflation and higher for longer story, and nearly every asset is just repricing around that”.

Portfolio Allocation Based on Risk Appetite

But how should capital be deployed based on an investor’s specific risk tolerance or risk aversion?

Zare reminded that “the honest definition of risk tolerance is the gap between your time horizon and when you actually need the money”, adding that “that sounds basic, but it is where most allocation mistakes begin ”.

Here are his answers:

  • “ For a conservative investor, the trap right now is that safe and nominal are not the same thing. Cash and short government bonds finally pay a real yield again, which is a gift after years of zero, but in a hot inflation environment long nominal bonds can still bleed purchasing power. Short maturities and some inflation linked exposure do the defensive job better than a pile of long bonds ”.
  • “ For a moderate investor , remember 2022. Stocks and bonds fell together because both were repricing for inflation. So diversification has to include something that behaves differently in an energy shock, which usually means a slice of real assets, commodities, or energy, sitting alongside the usual equity and bond mix”.
  • “ For a higher risk investor, dislocation creates opportunity , but the people who get hurt in volatile regimes are almost never wrong on the thesis. They are wrong on size. Position sizing and rebalancing discipline protect you far more than conviction does”.