Silver was changing hands at $53.81 an ounce shortly after 8 a.m. Rome time on October 28, 2026, down 1.28% and back within a whisker of the year-to-date low of $52.67 hit in Asian trading on October 27, 2026, the weakest level since November 2025.
The metal had clawed its way back to $54.5 on the afternoon of Tuesday, October 27, 2026, helped by a pause in oil, but the rebound ran out of steam within hours. Silver is down roughly 24% since the start of the year. Measured against the record of more than $121 set on January 29, the loss exceeds 55%.
Why the silver price is falling
Brent is back above $115 on Middle East tensions. The market fears a fresh burst of inflation in the United States and is betting on a Federal Reserve forced to tighten again. Traders expect rates to be left on hold at the meeting that concludes on the evening of October 28, 2026, but the probability of a hike in December has climbed to 84.4%, according to estimates reported by FXStreet. Analysts at Commerzbank have tied the weakness in precious metals to the rise in crude and to inflation worries ahead of the Fed.
Gold and silver pay no coupons. When real yields rise, the cost of holding them goes up, and with 10-year Treasuries around 5% the competition from bonds is biting. The dollar completes the picture: on October 27, 2026 it touched its highest level in ten days, making the metal more expensive for buyers in other currencies.
Silver is paying a higher price than gold, and the ratio between the two metals tells the story. At the end of January it took fewer than 50 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, a level not seen since 2012. On October 27 it took 75.19.
The reason lies in silver’s dual nature, a safe-haven asset but also an industrial raw material, and on the industrial front the news is bad. Metals Focus expects demand from the solar sector to fall 19% in 2026, to about 151 million ounces, as panel makers use less and less silver per cell after the price increases of recent months. The Silver Institute still forecasts a sixth consecutive year of deficit, estimated at 46.3 million ounces, but the imbalance between supply and demand has not been enough to halt the selling.
How we got here
After the slide that followed January’s record, the metal tried to climb back and briefly topped $70 at the end of August. September’s renewed attempt stalled lower, at $66.49 on September 21, carving out a lower high that foreshadowed the return of selling.
On October 14 the price lost about 6% in a single session after hotter-than-expected US inflation data. On October 22 the future gave up another 4.6%, closing at its lowest since November 2025 as oil picked up again and gold slipped below $4,000.
What the analysts forecast
Investment banks have cut their estimates in recent months, yet almost all of them still point to levels above current prices. The most recent comes from UBS. In a Chief Investment Office report released late last week, strategist Giovanni Staunovo sees silver at $70 in December 2026, $75 by mid-2027 and $80 by September 2027. Against the $53.81 seen this morning, the year-end target implies upside of 30.09%.
UBS expects pressure from central banks to remain an obstacle in the short term. Mine output cannot be ramped up quickly, since the metal is mostly extracted as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper and gold, and the market should stay in deficit.
J.P. Morgan is more cautious. On August 13 it cut its average fourth-quarter estimate from $90 to $63, bringing its 2026 average to $70.60 and its 2027 average to $63.90. The decline in solar demand drove the cut. It is also the estimate closest to today’s prices, with upside of 17.08%.
At the opposite extreme stands Citi, which on August 14 confirmed a target of $75 over three months and $90 over six to twelve months, while silver has since moved the other way. HSBC indicated a $70 target for year-end back in May.
The technical picture
The chart confirms the weakness. The price remains below all the main moving averages, with the 20-session at $58.28, the 50-session at $62.88 and the 200-session at $71.72. An ADX of 29.9 points to a well-defined downtrend, with the negative component clearly dominant.
The oscillators are in extreme territory. In the reading taken on the morning of October 27, 2026, the 14-session RSI stood at 30.8, just shy of oversold, and the stochastic below 4, while the price was grazing the lower Bollinger band at $52.76. Conditions like these often precede a technical rebound, with no guarantee that the trend will reverse.
The decisive support is the year’s low at $52.67. A close below that threshold would open the way toward the $50 area and, further down, toward the 52-week low at $45.85. On the upside, the first obstacle is at $55.50, then the zone between $57.77 and $58.28, where the 20-session average sits. Only a recovery of resistance at $61.27 and $63.73 would genuinely change the picture. Volatility remains high, with an ATR equal to 2.84% of the price and annualized historical volatility of 35.53% over 20 sessions.
What to expect now
The next few hours will say a great deal. On the evening of October 28, 2026, Kevin Warsh’s Fed reveals its hand on rates and, above all, on its message for December. US third-quarter GDP and the consumption deflator follow on October 29, 2026.
A less aggressive tone could give silver the spark for a rebound from oversold levels. A fresh surge in oil would risk pushing it below the year’s lows. Investors based in Italy should take extra care, because the metal is quoted in dollars and the return in euros also depends on the exchange rate.
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Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on October 28, 2026 as «Argento ai minimi dell’anno. Cosa c’è dietro il crollo del prezzo? Le previsioni degli analisti». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
