US stocks close October with a fourth straight year of gains behind them and a dense November calendar ahead: midterm elections on November 3, a Bank of England rate decision on the 5th, and employment data on the 6th. International indexes are again up double digits in 2026.
It has been an intense year. Wars, geopolitical tension, commodities that at one point looked set to soar, and a steady stream of pronouncements from Donald Trump. None of it stopped the advance.
Some investors are asking whether the run continues into November. Others have spent months waiting for a correction Wall Street keeps refusing to deliver. The US elections on November 3 add another variable, and some see them as a possible turning point for equities between now and year-end.
Those waiting on the sidelines for a drop risk watching the train leave the station. That is the lesson of both the historical statistics and the example Warren Buffett has set for decades. The fortune built by Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway shows what a long horizon can deliver when paired with careful diversification and the selection of undervalued assets.
The Oracle of Omaha’s method is to study companies and buy the stocks he judges undervalued, in the conviction that over the years they will reward shareholders. He pays little attention to what the market will do tomorrow, to a single macroeconomic reading, or to rate decisions from the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. He has the patience of a farmer who knows how many seasons separate sowing from harvest.
That philosophy sits uneasily with the idea of getting rich through short-term trading, where statistics published by brokers themselves put the share of losing traders as high as 80%. Diversification and a long horizon can produce interesting results, though no strategy removes the risks that come with equity investing.
November 2026 between historical statistics and Gann’s calendar
For anyone investing with a multi-year view, what happens in November matters relatively little. For followers of seasonal statistics, the coming month offers more than one favorable signal.
Studies of historical US equity series break monthly returns down by the four years of the presidential cycle. They assign November of the second year of the cycle, as 2026 is, an average return of 2.31% and a 70% probability of closing higher. Those numbers describe the past and guarantee nothing about the future.
2026 is also the sixth year of the decennial cycle. According to studies of the so-called 6th-2nd fractal, the average annual low tends to fall between September and October, which makes the month that follows worth watching.
Further back in time sits the calendar of William Delbert Gann, one of the world’s best-known traders and financial analysts. Born in 1878 and deceased on June 18, 1955, Gann spent much of his life studying time cycles and market recurrences, hunting for the moments when prices might hit an extreme or change direction.
In his method, time and price moved in step. He read them through market cycles, seasonal recurrences and geometric ratios, aiming to identify potential turning points from what had already happened.
The historical calendar attributed to Gann concentrates several time windows in November. The month opens with the one on November 1 and 2, flagged as a possible trend change. Between the 7th and the 8th comes a seasonal reference tied to the solar cycle. From November 8 to 11 sits a window considered important for potential reversals, and between the 11th and the 13th a possible secondary turn is flagged. The calendar gives particular weight to the period from November 17 to 19. In the final stretch of the month it associates the days from the 23rd to the 25th with the possible formation of a low and those from the 24th to the 26th with a possible trend reversal.
These dates come from Gann’s historical analyses. None was calculated specifically for 2026, and they work only as probabilistic reference points that actual market behavior could easily contradict.
The statistical recurrences intersect with a crowded calendar of economic and political events. On November 3 Americans vote in the midterm elections. The Bank of England decides on rates on the 5th, US employment data arrive on the 6th, inflation follows on the 10th, producer prices on the 13th, and retail sales and industrial production on the 17th.
The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have no regular rate meetings scheduled during the month. The rest could still be enough to push volatility higher, and no one can know in advance which direction equities will take.
Chart levels on the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to watch in November
Following Wall Street takes less forecasting than attention to high and low levels, both short- and long-term: the prices where trading volume often clusters and against which technical analysts measure the health of a trend.
As long as a market is rising, lows and highs step up one after another like the treads of a staircase. When the staircase starts to descend, the sequence reverses. The levels the indexes touched in October can serve as a compass for November.
The Dow Jones marked its low at 50,546.54 points on October 1. The Nasdaq Composite fell to 25,866.15 points on October 23, and the S&P 500 reached a low of 7,612.07 points the same day.
As of the October 28 reading, the Dow Jones stood at 52,377 points, roughly 3.62% above the month’s low. The Nasdaq Composite was closer, at 26,477 points, about 2.36% higher. Closest of all was the S&P 500, which at 7,722 points retained a margin of about 1.44%.
If these lows hold, the bullish case has a first argument in its favor. Firmer confirmation would come with a break above October’s highs, which can only be pinned down once the month closes and the map of levels to follow in November is complete.
Multiplying indicators rarely leads to better decisions. With too many oscillators open and charts across different timeframes, the signals start to contradict one another. It is a bit like driving with three satnavs running and, between one voice and the next, taking the highway exit one junction too early or too late. In markets, that error takes the form of premature entries or positions opened when most of the move is already in the past.
Cross-referencing the time windows with the key highs and lows gives chart analysts a way to avoid getting lost among dozens of indicators: the calendar tells them when to prick up their ears, and prices tell them whether the trend is holding or starting to creak.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Gerardo Marciano on October 31, 2026 as «Borse, cosa aspettarsi a novembre 2026 tra elezioni di midterm, date di Gann e livelli chiave». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
