Silver dropped back below $52 an ounce on Thursday, November 12, 2026. Shortly before 11 a.m. the metal was changing hands at $51.13, down 1.69%, after a session low of $50.73. Gold fell with it, trading at $3,948.8 (-1.29%) at the same moment, below the $4,000 mark.
One thread has driven the dollar, Treasuries and equities since Tuesday, and it is now driving precious metals: the market has decided the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, and that it may not stop there.
October inflation and Waller’s remarks
The trigger was the consumer price report released on November 10 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The headline index rose 0.4% month over month in October, after +0.6% in September. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% for the third month running. That was hotter than expected, according to Reuters.
The report came with a technical quirk. The BLS did not publish the year-over-year change this time, because prices were not collected in October 2025 during the federal funding shutdown.
Speaking in London the same day, Governor Christopher Waller gave traders their interpretive key. In his speech he said he was «inclined to support a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate at the December FOMC meeting». If the October figure due a few hours later showed core inflation around 0.3% or higher, as it then did, he added, a 50 basis point hike should also be considered. His reason: «moving only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk». The picture is of a Fed back in restrictive mode.
Prices have moved accordingly. CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters show traders fully pricing in a hike in December and another in March 2027. The dollar has climbed to a 19-month high against the main currencies.
Why silver is suffering more than gold
The combination hits both metals on two fronts. Higher rates raise the cost of holding an asset that pays neither coupons nor interest, and a strong dollar makes the metals more expensive for buyers in other currencies.
Silver tends to amplify moves in gold. It is a smaller market, and a large share of demand comes from industry, which leaves it exposed to worries about the economic cycle that monetary tightening brings. The ratio between the two prices remains high, at around 77 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold at this morning’s levels.
Not everyone reads the correction as the start of a new bearish phase. Analysts at OCBC, in a note picked up by Reuters, see «risks in both directions in the near term» for gold, but say they have not turned pessimistic on the medium-term outlook.
The levels to watch
The chart picture remains fragile. According to the Money.it technical analysis, calculated on the November 11 close, the price fell during the morning below the first support at $51.01 and is now hovering just above that threshold. A decisive break points to 50.33; this morning’s low stopped at 50.73. The first obstacle on the upside is 52.77.
The moving averages show how long the downtrend has run. The 50-day average sits at $59.27 and the 200-day at $69.75, both far above current prices. The RSI at 39.2 signals weakness but not yet oversold conditions. Below current levels, the reference is the $48-49 area, where silver traded in early November before the rebound that followed the midterm elections.
What comes next
The calendar offers no pause. The BLS publishes the October producer price index on Friday, November 13, 2026, the next test for Fed expectations. Attention then shifts to the FOMC meeting on December 8 and 9, which will also bring new economic projections. Until then, any above-expectations data point risks weighing on silver more heavily than any news on physical demand.
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Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on November 12, 2026 as «Argento sotto 52 dollari e oro sotto 4.000: i metalli preziosi pagano la Fed pronta a rialzare i tassi». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
