Saipem shares slumped straight to the bottom of Milan’s FTSE MIB benchmark index on Tuesday, after the Italian oil & gas services group released its results the previous evening.

The sell-off was driven by the company’s decision to cut its adjusted EBITDA guidance, which it blamed on higher costs tied to the crisis in the Middle East.

The reaction was immediate: the stock plunged more than 9% before paring some of its losses, which nonetheless remained heavy.

Analysts at Barclays confirmed their «Equal Weight» rating on Saipem shares and their €5 (about $5.40) price target.

That target implies that, in the analysts’ view, the shares — which shortly before 10 a.m. Italian time were down almost 7% at €4.057 — could recover ground, climbing roughly 23%.

Saipem cuts adjusted EBITDA guidance on Middle East crisis costs

While it confirmed its revenue guidance, Saipem lowered its adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Here is how the Italian company explained the two main reasons for the downgrade:

«Revenue guidance is confirmed on the assumption that the execution of projects in the Middle East remains resilient, in line with the first half of the year. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is updated to reflect (i) the extra costs already incurred in connection with the Middle East crisis, plus an estimate of the extra costs that could affect the second half of the year, and (ii) the deconsolidation of shallow-water drilling activities following the completion of their divestment.»

Specifically, it is worth recalling that Saipem incurred roughly €70 million (about $76 million) in additional costs to strengthen safety measures protecting personnel operating in the Gulf area and to cope with the logistical difficulties caused by the conflict with Iran.

Adjusted EBITDA is therefore now expected at around €1.75 billion (about $1.89 billion), down from the €1.9 billion (about $2.05 billion) the company had previously forecast. On guidance, Saipem specified that «the recoverability of the extra costs cannot be precisely quantified at this stage, as it is subject to the outcome of commercial discussions with clients. Although clients are showing signs of support, the recovery of those extra costs has not been incorporated into the above guidance.»

Notably, second-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell almost 3%, to €402 million (about $434 million), missing the expectations of analysts polled by LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), who had forecast €464 million (about $501 million).

Confirmed, by contrast, were the forecasts for operating cash flow (net of lease payments), at around €1.0 billion (about $1.08 billion), while revenues are still seen at around €15.5 billion (about $16.7 billion): «Revenue guidance is confirmed on the assumption that the execution of projects in the Middle East remains resilient, in line with the first half of the year,» the group’s press release on its second-quarter and first-half 2026 results stated. Capital expenditure is estimated at around €450 million (about $486 million), while free cash flow (net of lease payments) is estimated at around €600 million (about $648 million).

Saipem closes first-half 2026 with adjusted net profit down to €131 million

The group announced on Monday evening that it had ended the first half of 2026 with an adjusted net profit of €131 million (about $142 million), down 6.4% from €140 million (about $151 million) in the first half of 2025.

The company attributed the decline both to a €30 million negative swing in the adjusted operating result and to a €15 million worsening of its tax position, partly offset by a €28 million improvement in the financial result and an €8 million improvement in the equity-investments result.

Net profit came in at €96 million (about $104 million), reflecting €35 million in non-recurring charges relative to the adjusted net result, tied to provisions for the voluntary-redundancy plan signed with the trade unions in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In the first half of the year, Saipem’s revenues amounted to €7.345 billion (about $7.93 billion), up from €7.211 billion in the first half of 2025, while adjusted EBITDA came in at €836 million (about $903 million), rising from €764 million a year earlier.

Saipem also announced that it had booked new orders totaling €5.737 billion (about $6.20 billion), up from €4.301 billion in the first half of 2025.

The net financial position before IFRS 16 (the international accounting standard for leases) stood positive at €1.078 billion as of June 30, 2026, while the net financial position including the IFRS 16 lease liability, equal to €1.187 billion, was negative by €109 million.

Gross debt as of June 30, 2026, before IFRS 16 lease-liability effects, amounted to €1.792 billion, while liquidity stood at €2.870 billion, of which €1.291 billion was available.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Laura Naka Antonelli on July 28, 2026 as «Azioni Saipem crollano fino a oltre -9% a Piazza Affari dopo conti. Pesa taglio guidance: i due motivi». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.