Surpassing predictions, the solar storm is making amazing opportunities for photography, and some headaches for satellite operators worried about performance and, in some cases, whether their satellites are still working.
A set of waves from the Sun are expected to arrive on Saturday morning, GMT. Scientists monitoring the Sun detected at five Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) being launched on the morning of May 9. Most of the CMEs were of the X-class in intensity, and each of them could damage satellites and cause radio blackouts. However, the scientists noted that later flares were stronger and faster. This means that they should sweep up the other flares as they approach Earth, in what is called a Cannibal CME. The effects of a Cannibal CME can effect electrical systems on Earth.
Where will this affect?
Canada, Scandinavia, and Alaska will definitely be affected by the storm. Other geomagnetic storms of this strength (G4 - Severe) have had terrestrial effects. Aurora should be visible throughout most of Europe.
What can be affected?
The threat to electrical systems in space and on Earth is real. A geomagnetic storm of this type caused 40 recently launched Starlink satellites to fail and reenter the atmosphere in 2022. Another such event in 1989 caused the electrical grid in parts of Quebec to shut down in 1989; electrical power systems in the northern U.S. were also affected.
The worst-ever recorded geomagnetic storm to hit Earth occurred in 1859 and is called the Carrington Event. It is considered the first global technological disaster. British astronomers British astronomers Richard Christopher Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently observed an extremely bright solar flare on September 1, 1859. The next day, very strong northern lights were observed as far south as Cuba.
The northern lights were not the only effect on Earth. Telegraph systems across Europe and North America failed. Some telegraph stations burned down. Operators on systems that were still functioning found that they could operate their systems without batteries connected. Lloyd’s of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. published a paper in 2013 that looked at how such an event would affect systems in place at the time of writing. In 2023 dollars, it would have caused between $775 billion and $ 3.35 trillion in damage. And that was before Starlink began launching satellites.
What about this weekend?
Space weather experts are currently estimating that this will not cause a Carrington-class event on Earth. People living in high latitudes could experience local or regional power or unusual radio effects. A global blackout of long distance shortwave radio is pretty much guaranteed.
There can be delays or rerouted airline flights. The amount of energy at the level at which commercial airliners fly will be many times greater than usual. Flights over the North Pole are particularly likely to be affected. Rocket launches – even for satellites – could be delayed by a few days.
Any system that utilizes a satellite component – GPS, Starlink, satellite TV – can be affected. The satellites themselves, despite being hardened against such electromagnetic radiation, can still fail. GPS signals can be affected.
Should I be worried?
If you are flying from Tromso to Spitzbergen, or from Point Barrow to Nome on Saturday morning, check with your airline. Otherwise, it’s time for an aurora party. Just don’t be surprised if your GPS fails for a while.
Argomenti
