The regime of Vladimir Putin faced its most serious threat yet. Here are the main takeaways from that eventful day.
Saturday, June 24th, 2023 could have been a truly historic date. The events that unfolded in Russia could have changed the history of the 21st century, shaping the future of the entire world.
For a few hours, it seemed like Russia was going to collapse, or at least Vladimir Putin’s regime. A rebellion mounted by PMC Wagner leader Yegneny Prigozhin attacked Moscow, stopping only 200 km short of the city.
The reasons why Prigozhin stopped are yet unclear. The most likely option is that the rebellion simply failed. This will be the starting point of our analysis here, but it must be kept in mind nothing is certain yet. The real story behind Saturday’s rebellion will likely remain a secret for years.
There are, however, three main takeaways from Prigozhin’s attempted coup that could influence the short-term course of the Ukraine war.
1) Dead man walking
Saturday morning, it seemed Yevgeny Prigozhin was unstoppable. His force of 25.000 men strong was marching towards Moscow, destroying every meaningful opposition it found. Estimates say the Wagner group downed six Russian aircraft, killing at least one pilot.
But Prigozhin overestimated his capabilities. He believed the Russian army would all mutiny against Putin and join his rebellion.
While some Russian battalions laid their arms and surrendered, most of the army was concentrating on building defenses around Moscow.
By late afternoon, Prigozhin’s column was down to 2.000 men, not barely enough to scratch Moscow’s protection.
For this reason, Prigozhin stopped. Though he was promised a safe haven in Belarus, Putin rarely forgets a betrayal. According to many, Prigozhin’s days are counted unless he manages to escape.
2) Putin’s regime is weak
One thing is certain: Putin is losing his grip on power. A similar rebellion would have been unthinkable before the war.
But one year and a half of constant losses and empty promises eroded Putin’s influence.
Russia has not been this weak in decades if not centuries. Its numerous army could not conquer Kyiv and is now on the defensive. Russia’s main enemies are more united than ever and Putin’s war essentially brought him into China’s sphere of influence.
Priogozhin’s blow was not deadly, but it showed Putin’s many weaknesses. How many other failed coups will it take for the regime to crumble?
3) The West knew
Finally, according to recent reports, it seems that US intelligence knew about the attempted coup days before it happened.
It is unclear whether or not the United States materially supported Prigozhin, but it seems they knew about it too late to act.
Indeed, the coup did not last long enough to give Ukraine a serious advantage. None of the Russian armies in Ukraine were moved against Prigozhin, therefore the situation on the ground remains seemingly unchanged.
But the coup might have impacted the already weak Russian morale, though such an effect will only be felt in the coming weeks.
For the moment, the Ukrainian counter-offensive seems slower than expected, but it might change at any time. Will Ukraine exploit the situation to turn the offensive around?
