A leaked document from the US high command revealed pessimism regarding the upcoming Ukrainian spring counter-offensive.
The Washington Post, a prominent US-based news outlet, revealed exclusive leaked documents about the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive against the Russian invader. Contrary to the mainstream narrative, the document shows pessimism among US military elites in the success of the operation.
Ukraine regained large swaths of occupied territories last year. Russia started its invasion on three separate fronts, and Ukraine managed to repel them on each and everyone. Ukraine managed to reconquer land around Kyiv, Kharkiv and, most importantly, the regional capital of Kherson.
After the Ukrainian success, the war pretty much stabilized, as Russia made small gains around the town of Bakhmut.
The optimism about a Ukrainian victory remained nevertheless, and now Kyiv is preparing a counter-offensive to sever the Russian land connection with Crimea. The exact spot where the offensive will start is, of course, classified information.
The West has supplied Ukraine with billions in military equipment, including heavy battle tanks, as they were particularly hopeful for this counter-offensive.
Indeed, if successful, the offensive would isolate Crimea from Russia, leaving the Kerch bridge as the only land connection between Moscow and the peninsula. This would leave Crimea open for a future invasion, which would almost definitely end the war in Ukraine’s favor.
American pessimism
Though US president Joe Biden often publicly expressed positive sentiments on the Ukrainian spring offensive, the newly leaked document shows a different mood.
According to the Washington Post, the document presents a rather pessimistic scenario whereby the spring offensive will likely win Ukraine small gains. Ukraine is too depleted of manpower and resources to mount an attack as successful as last year’s.
Furthermore, though the West sent massive aid to Ukraine, the military equipment is yet to arrive in full. The Abrams battle tanks sent by the United States will not be on Ukrainian soil for months, and then they’d have to be fully deployed.
“The most critical part is a delay of the already promised systems,” the report reads, “which delays training of newly formed brigades and the counteroffensive as a whole.”
On the other hand, Russia too is facing a significant morale problem. Russian president Vladimir Putin has yet to show one significant victory that justified the whole Ukrainian invasion, and he might be running out of ideas.
According to the document, a Ukrainian attack is unlikely to sever the land connection completely, but it might be successful enough to disrupt Russian communication. It could lay the ground for a future attack, this time with the full Western equipment deployed.
Overall, however, the Ukrainian counter-offensive seems unlikely to succeed in full. Apparently, the war will not be over by Christmas.
