Presidential elections and constitutional referendum: on October 20, Moldova will be called to decide its future.
On October 20, Moldovan citizens will vote in a crucial referendum: whether to include the goal of joining the European Union in the Constitution. This vote could have profound economic and political implications for the country, already torn between European aspirations and Russian influence. While some Moldovans see the EU as a way to improve their economy and living conditions, the referendum could exacerbate tensions with the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria.
The prospect of EU membership raises hopes, at least among some, for economic stability. However, not everyone shares this enthusiasm. In Tiraspol, the capital of the breakaway region, many see Russia as the future. The situation could become explosive if the referendum leads to further internal division, making Moldova’s path to the EU increasingly uncertain. Moldova applied for EU membership in March 2022—>https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eastern-partnership/moldova/] and was granted candidate status in June 2022. In December 2023, EU leaders decided to open accession negotiations.
Crucial elections
October 20 is doubly important for Moldova because it will be the date of presidential elections that will decide whether pro-European Maia Sandu will win a second term. Sandu is the frontrunner, according to polls, but she will face Ilan Shor, a pro-Russian oligarch backed by the Kremlin. Shor’s party, which bears his name, aims to hinder Moldova’s integration into the European Union, instead promoting a rapprochement and maintaining excellent diplomatic and economic relations with Moscow. Sandu’s government accuses the Kremlin of interference: according to what was stated by Stanislav Secrieru, the country’s national security adviser in an interview with POLITICO, there is an "unprecedented attack" by Moscow, which is reportedly using hybrid tactics to influence the October referendum, when Moldovan citizens will decide whether to join the European bloc.
"The Russian strategy is frightening: exploiting fear, especially the fear of war," Secrieru said. "For the first time, the Russian disinformation machine is dangerously tying our EU membership to the threat of conflict within our borders." According to Secrieru, pro-EU President Maia Sandu is the main target of an aggressive digital campaign seeking to undermine the legitimacy of Moldova’s ties with the West. Law enforcement officials estimate that around €50 million was used to influence elections last year, through bribing propagandists and vulnerable voters. This year, with a referendum and presidential election on the horizon, Russia is expected to spend up to €100 million to interfere in the country’s democratic processes.
Pro-Western NGOs in Moldova
However, several pro-Western NGOs also operate in Moldova, aiming to "steer" and influence heavily public opinion, similar to what happened in Ukraine with Euromaidan. Among these is USAID (United States Agency for International Development), founded in 1961. In recent years, USAID’s financial support for Moldova has exceeded 500 million dollars in total, with investments concentrated on "economic, institutional and governance reforms". USAID is joined by other very active pro-Western NGOs such as "Promo-LEX", "IDIS Viitorul", "East Europe Foundation (EEF)", "WatchDog.MD" - which fights "pro-Russian disinformation" - and above all the European Business Association (EBA), which promotes Moldovan economic integration with the European Union. Most of these organizations are funded by the European Union and USAID with millions of dollars (and euros) every year. However, very little is said about these "interferences" in the press, as if the interference was only from Moscow.
Since its independence in 1991, Moldova has seen the support of the United States for its sovereignty and territorial integrity, a commitment put to the test almost immediately with the conflict in Transnistria. After clashes between Transnistrian separatist forces, supported by the remnants of the former Soviet 14th Army, and Moldovan forces, a ceasefire was reached that effectively guaranteed the de facto independence of the breakaway region. This unresolved conflict remains one of the main challenges for Moldova. Over the years, the United States has continued to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, opposing plans that would have consolidated Russia’s presence in Transnistria and limited Moldova’s future membership in NATO. One such attempt, the 2003 "Kozak Plan," envisaged transforming Moldova into a federation, allowing Russian military personnel to remain in the country, but was rejected, thanks in part to opposition from Washington.
A recent CSIS report highlighted five factors that are crucial to Moldova’s future: Washington’s material support for Moldova and Ukraine, Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian forces, the possible re-election of pro-Western President Maia Sandu, Moldova’s progress in reforms and economic integration with the EU, and the country’s ability to address an energy crisis expected in December 2024. Despite growing Western support, the report warns that with tensions between the US and Russia rising over the war in Ukraine, it is not the time to make radical moves in Moldova, instead suggesting a more cautious approach to the country’s future. Otherwise, Moldova risks becoming a new Ukraine.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-10-01 06:29:00. Original title: Sarà la Moldavia la prossima Ucraina?
