According to the report «The Coming AI Waste Wave», published by the Basel Action Network on September 15, 2026, between 8.6 and 13.1 million tons of AI-related electronic equipment could be decommissioned by 2030. That figure is far higher than earlier academic projections — 40 to 60 times higher.
Why the gap? Previous studies focused on servers and GPUs, while the latest research accounts for the entire electronic infrastructure that supports data centers, not just the hardware itself. Looking further out, the numbers are even more striking: between 2025 and 2050, AI-related equipment waste could total between 395 and 617 million tons.
Why data centers generate so much waste
The main driver behind these figures is the pace at which data centers replace their hardware. The data show that most components are swapped out every five years, while accelerators and servers last barely half that long. That turnover generates waste faster than traditional replacement cycles anticipate.
There is also a related phenomenon the report calls “AI waste contagion”: equipment discarded outside data centers that becomes obsolete because of the AI sector’s rapid growth. As a result, the picture is increasingly concerning worldwide.
Electronic waste is already the fastest-growing waste stream on the planet, and only about a fifth of it is processed correctly. Much of the rest ends up incinerated or landfilled, exposing workers and local communities to substances such as lead, mercury, and cadmium.
What rules are currently in place
On the regulatory front, there are still no rules specifically limiting the damage caused by AI data center waste. The United States, which hosts most of the world’s AI infrastructure, has not updated its approach under the Basel Convention (the international treaty governing the cross-border movement of hazardous waste) to address it.
In Europe, movement has so far been limited to consumer electronics. A right-to-repair directive took effect on July 31, 2026, requiring manufacturers to repair certain products even after the warranty expires, with the goal of cutting the roughly 62 million tons of electronic waste generated each year.
What is now being demanded is direct intervention on AI infrastructure itself, where for now only recommendations exist. The Basel Action Network, which published “The Coming AI Waste Wave,” is urging governments and companies to start planning for disposal and recycling now. The risk, it warns, is that the problem becomes unmanageable within just a few years.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Pasquale Conte on September 18, 2026 as «Data center e rifiuti elettronici, cosa prevede il divieto legato all’hardware per l’AI». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
