Arabica coffee prices fell by about 20% in the first 20 days of September, according to agrifood research firm Areté. On the financial markets, ICE arabica futures in New York are trading today (September 28, 2026) around 278.6 cents per pound: down 10.6% over the past month and more than 25% since the start of the year.

A record harvest turns the coffee market upside down

The main driver is the return of rain in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, after months of drought in key growing areas such as Minas Gerais. On September 24, Conab (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, the statistics agency of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture) raised its 2026 crop estimate to an all-time record of 67.6 million 60-kg bags, 19.6% more than the previous year. Arabica accounts for 48.2 million bags (+35% on the previous season) and robusta for 19.4 million (-7%).

The figures were reported by Forbes Brasil and are corroborated by another independent Brazilian outlet, Conexão Tocantins, and by Reuters.

Corn moves in the opposite direction

While coffee falls, corn rises. In September, CME futures gained about 12% compared with the August average, Euronext gained 4%, and the Bologna contract 103, the benchmark for the Italian market, gained about 7%, again according to the Areté analysis picked up by the two outlets.

The rally reflects two near-simultaneous cuts to production estimates. The USDA’s September WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) lowered 2026/27 US production, cutting the average yield to 178.5 bushels per acre (down 2.2 from August) and harvested area to 88.5 million acres, for an overall production decline of about 1.3% from the previous month. The European Commission, for its part, revised the 2026/27 EU harvest down to roughly 50-50.6 million tonnes, 17% less than in 2025.

What it means for Italian consumers

Italy is among the world’s leading processors of green coffee, and its roasting industry depends almost entirely on imports. Cheaper arabica should, in theory, ease roasters’ sourcing costs, although the pass-through to consumer prices usually takes several months and is never automatic.

More expensive corn pushes in the opposite direction, weighing on livestock feed costs and on the processed food industry, at a time when food inflation remains a factor that central banks, the ECB included, continue to monitor closely. For those investing in commodities through ETCs (exchange-traded commodities) or funds, the episode shows how, within the same agricultural complex, local supply drivers such as weather and yields can produce opposite and uncorrelated moves in individual commodities.

Disclaimer

The information and considerations in this article should not be used as the sole or main basis for investment decisions. Readers remain fully free to make their own investment choices and fully responsible for them, since only they know their risk tolerance and time horizon. The information is provided for informational purposes only, and its dissemination does not constitute an offer or solicitation of public savings.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on September 28, 2026 as «Il caffè crolla del 20%, il mais vola. La pioggia in Brasile e i tagli di Usda e Ue riscrivono il futuro delle materie prime agricole». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.