Keir Starmer, the likely future PM of the UK, will seek closer ties with the European Union, but without any talks of future membership.
British people are regretting the Brexit vote. This is a well-known fact that everyone but the British establishment ceased to ignore. According to Statista, the share of people regretting Brexit has been well over 50% since July 2022, with the latest YouGov poll saying the UK would vote to rejoin the European Union.
Building walls with the closest and largest trading partner for no particular reason other than nostalgia for a lost empire makes “Bregret” obvious today, although it should have been obvious 7 years ago too.
The Office of Budget Responsibility considers Brexit a disaster comparable to the Covid pandemic and the energy crisis. Chairman Richard Hughes estimated that Britain lost 4% of potential GDP growth by exiting the common market.
After their disaster, the Tories already started going back on their decisions. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed a deal with the EU to rejoin the bloc’s science and space research programs. Sunak dubbed it “The right deal for the UK”.
But the Tories have their days numbered. At next year’s elections, the opposition Labour Party is expected to win by a landslide, making Keir Starmer the future Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Starmer is already solidifying its position, meeting with international partners, and seeking to open a new chapter with the European Union. A chapter, however, that is hard to read.
Associate membership
The European Union, for its part, does not want another Brexit conundrum. Germany and France, the European powerhouses, will allow the UK back only on their terms. Their conditions will be hard to swallow for the Labour party.
The EU’s plan calls for associate membership. The United Kingdom would rejoin the common market, and be governed by the European Court of Justice, but would not be bound by any other form of participation. The EU’s internal and foreign matters would not involve British decision-making and would not apply to the UK.
Under this deal, the UK would contribute to the EU’s budget, although at far lower costs than a full membership.
The associate membership is part of the “outer tiers” in the works amid Brussels cycles. The idea is to make the European Union more flexible, advancing economically and politically while including more members with different privileges.
Keir Starmer, however, already ruled out this possibility. The Labour Party is staunchly against rejoining the common market, as it would increase political uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the Labour Party will seek closer ties with the EU, as Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet made extensively clear. Depending on the election results, they would have to convince a number of Brexiteers to come aboard, hence increasing political uncertainty anyway.
The European Union and the United Kingdom are battling the same crises. Immigration, demographics, the war in Ukraine, energy independence, inflation… The only difference is that the UK will be alone.
