Despite forecasts that a Super El Niño could push Europe toward a milder-than-average winter, concern over the region’s gas storage levels — which remain well below expectations — hasn’t eased.

The fear is that a season marked by unusually cold temperatures could quickly drive up energy demand, with knock-on effects on wholesale gas prices and, potentially, on household bills. For Italy, however, the outlook looks less worrying than for other European countries.

Italy heads into winter with gas reserves far above the European average

The good news for Italy is its storage level: according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Italian gas reserves have topped 82% of capacity, well above the EU average of roughly 61%.

A country’s gas storage is one of the key tools for getting through the winter season. In the coldest months, gas demand rises sharply because of heating needs, and the system has to be able to draw on reserves large enough to cover the extra consumption.

Starting from a higher fill level gives Italy a significantly bigger cushion than its European partners. At the current pace, the goal of reaching around 90% of storage capacity before winter begins looks achievable. That doesn’t mean the country is automatically immune to market shocks, but a higher storage level makes it easier to weather any surge in demand.

Why having more gas in storage can shield consumers from higher bills

Beyond energy security, having sufficient gas in storage can also affect prices. When demand suddenly spikes — as happens during a stretch of intense cold — suppliers need to secure larger volumes of gas. If that happens at a time when the international market is tight on supply, competition for cargoes can push wholesale prices higher.

Countries that already have gas stockpiled can cover a larger share of demand from national reserves, reducing the need to buy additional volumes on the spot market right away. That’s precisely why Italy’s position looks relatively reassuring: high reserves won’t stop European prices from rising, but they can reduce the national system’s exposure to the sharpest spikes.

How Italy diversified its gas supply strategy

Italy’s situation looks less critical partly because of the greater diversification of its supply sources. In recent years, the country’s energy system has steadily cut its reliance on Russian gas by increasing imports from other countries and expanding its capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Today, one of Italy’s main pipeline suppliers is Algeria, while the Azerbaijan supply corridor also remains active. On top of that, LNG can be imported through the regasification terminals located in Italy.

Facilities in Piombino, Ravenna, Panigaglia, Livorno, and Cavarzere also allow Italy to draw more heavily on gas shipped in by tanker, adding another supply channel to the mix.

What will winter 2026/27 look like? The real risk for Europe

Italy’s favorable position doesn’t erase the uncertainties facing the rest of the continent. Weather will be the deciding factor in the months ahead, since a particularly harsh winter could push up heating-related gas consumption across Europe.

Early projections for the 2026/2027 winter point to differing weather scenarios across the continent. In particular, the possible development of a Super El Niño — tied to marked warming of tropical Pacific waters — could shape storm tracks for months, altering the distribution of rainfall and snowfall across Europe.

Even if a Super El Niño tends, according to some projections, to favor a milder-than-average winter overall, that doesn’t rule out the risk of intense cold snaps in parts of the continent. For the energy market, what matters most is how cold it gets, and for how long. A prolonged cold spell could drive up gas demand simultaneously across several countries, adding pressure to both supply and prices.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Emanuela Ceccarelli on September 06, 2026 as «Inverno freddo per l’Europa, ma l’Italia si salva. Ecco perché la crisi del gas non preoccupa». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.