Although the possible development of a Super El Niño could push Europe toward a milder-than-average winter, concern over gas storage levels — which remain well below expectations — has not eased.

The fear is that a season marked by particularly cold temperatures could quickly drive up energy demand, with knock-on effects on wholesale prices and, potentially, on household energy bills. For Italy, however, the outlook looks less worrying than it does for other European countries.

Italy heads into winter with far higher gas reserves than the rest of Europe

The good news for Italy is the level its storage facilities have reached: according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), they have topped 82% of capacity, well above the EU average of around 61%.

A country’s gas storage is one of the key tools for getting through the winter season. In the colder months, gas demand rises because of heating needs, and the system has to be able to draw on reserves large enough to cover the extra consumption.

Starting from a higher fill level gives Italy a significantly wider margin than its European partners. On current trends, the goal of reaching around 90% of storage capacity before winter begins looks achievable. That doesn’t mean the country is automatically immune to market tension, but a higher storage level makes it easier to weather any sudden rise in demand.

Why more gas in storage can protect against higher energy bills

Beyond energy security, having sufficient gas in storage can also affect the price of gas itself. When demand suddenly rises — as happens during a spell of intense cold — suppliers need to secure larger volumes of gas. If that happens at a time when the international market has limited supply on offer, competition for available cargoes can push wholesale prices higher.

Countries that already have gas in storage can cover a larger share of demand from national reserves, reducing the need to buy additional volumes on the market immediately.

For that reason, Italy’s position looks relatively reassuring. Higher reserves don’t stop European prices from rising, but they can reduce the national system’s exposure to periods of the greatest strain.

Supply diversification: how Italy’s strategy works

Italy’s situation looks less critical also thanks to greater diversification of its supply sources. In recent years, the country’s energy system has progressively reduced its reliance on Russian gas by increasing imports from other countries and expanding its capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Algeria is currently one of the main suppliers via pipeline, while the supply channel from Azerbaijan also remains active. On top of that is LNG, which can be imported through Italy’s regasification terminals.

Infrastructure such as the terminals at Piombino, Ravenna, Panigaglia, Livorno, and Cavarzere also allows Italy to make greater use of gas shipped in by sea, offering a further supply channel.

What will winter 2026/27 look like? Europe’s real risk

Italy’s favorable position doesn’t eliminate the uncertainties facing the continent as a whole. The weather will be decisive in the coming months, since a particularly cold winter could drive up gas consumption for heating across all of Europe.

Early projections for the 2026/2027 winter point to differing weather scenarios across various parts of Europe. In particular, the possible emergence of a Super El Niño — tied to a marked warming of tropical Pacific waters — could influence weather patterns for months, also altering the distribution of rainfall and snowfall across Europe.

The fact that a Super El Niño could, according to some projections, favor a milder-than-average winter doesn’t rule out the risk of spells of intense cold in parts of the continent. For the energy market, what will matter most is how cold it gets, and for how long. A prolonged period of low temperatures could push up gas demand simultaneously across several countries, increasing pressure on supply and on prices.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Emanuela Ceccarelli on September 6, 2026 as «Inverno freddo per l’Europa, ma l’Italia si salva. Ecco perché la crisi del gas non preoccupa». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.