Next week shapes up as a period of unusual intensity for global financial markets, dominated by a series of high-impact macroeconomic releases coming primarily from the United States, with meaningful repercussions across the Asia-Pacific region and Europe as well.

With central banks holding a cautious stance after the monetary policy moves of the first half of the year, investors and analysts will get the chance to gauge the strength of US domestic demand, the trajectory of inflationary pressures, and the resilience of the housing market—all factors capable of shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

The data to watch

Tuesday (August 11) opens the most significant phase with the monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The central bank, which has already brought its benchmark rate to 4.35% over the course of 2026, is expected by most observers to leave the cost of money unchanged, though a residual scenario of a further hike cannot be entirely ruled out given lingering inflation risks tied to energy dynamics and domestic demand. The release of the Statement on Monetary Policy and the subsequent press conference will offer valuable insight into the Australian central bank’s read on the disinflation path and the resilience of the local labor market, with potential repercussions for the Australian dollar and Asia-Pacific equity markets.

On the same day in the United States, attention will turn to the small-business optimism index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and, above all, to existing home sales for July, released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The latter is a crucial gauge of the health of the US housing sector, already tested by high mortgage rates and still-elevated prices. A further contraction in transactions, following the signs of weakness seen in prior months, could reinforce concerns about a slowdown in household spending, while a better-than-expected reading could support the narrative of more resilient residential demand.

What will the Fed do with this data?

The heart of the week arrives Wednesday, August 12, with the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). After June’s reading showed an annual increase of 3.5% and a negative monthly trend, markets will scrutinize both the headline figure and the core measure, stripped of food and energy. Further moderation in prices would strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve more inclined to consider monetary easing in the second half of the year, whereas an unexpected rebound could reignite fears of incomplete disinflation and push US Treasury yields higher. The July federal budget balance will also be published, a useful read on the evolution of the deficit and fiscal dynamics at a time of heightened attention to public debt.

Thursday (August 13) continues the focus on price pressures with July’s Producer Price Index (PPI), again from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This indicator, which measures inflation at the source, often provides an early signal of future CPI dynamics and will be accompanied by the usual initial jobless claims data. Meanwhile, in Europe, attention may shift to euro-area industrial production for June, a figure capable of confirming or refuting the signs of weakness in the continental manufacturing sector already seen in recent months. A disappointing reading would reinforce doubts about the European recovery, while a stronger-than-expected result could offer temporary support to the euro.

The week closes with the most consequential US sequence: July retail sales and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for August. Retail sales are one of the most direct barometers of household spending, and after the modest increase recorded in June, markets will assess whether consumer resilience is holding or whether the first signs of fatigue are emerging. The sentiment gauge, for its part, will provide an updated picture of inflation expectations and consumers’ perception of economic conditions—elements the Federal Reserve watches closely in its deliberations.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Redazione Money Premium on August 09, 2026 as «Market movers (10-16 agosto), perché i dati in uscita questa settimana possono ribaltare le attese sulla Fed?». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.