On Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 am ET (2:30 pm in Rome), the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September consumer price index (CPI), the last significant macro release before the Federal Reserve’s October 28 meeting. It arrives in a phase that inverts the pattern markets had grown used to over the past few years: the US central bank is not cutting rates to support growth, it is raising them, while inflation sits above its 2% target.

A rare hike, with inflation already above target

On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, on a unanimous 12-0 vote. In its official statement the Fed wrote that inflation remains elevated and that the decision was intended to support a more timely return to the 2% objective, in a setting where employment is keeping pace with labor force growth, the unemployment rate has changed little, and economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, with resilient domestic spending and strong productivity growth.

It is an uncommon configuration: a hiking cycle normally accompanies inflation that is falling back toward target, not inflation that is climbing again. The 10-year Treasury yield, trading around 5.20%, reflects exactly that uncertainty — investors are waiting on today’s number to judge whether the Fed has to press on.

What forecasters expect from today’s print

Estimates from the various models converge on a similar, though not identical, picture. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast, updated on October 13, points to headline CPI rising 0.53% month over month and 3.60% year over year, with core (excluding energy and food) at 0.20% monthly and 2.39% annual. Research firm Continuum Economics, in a September 29 note by Dave Sloan, is slightly higher: headline at 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annual, core at 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annual, unchanged from August.

According to Continuum Economics, the jump in telephone services that surprised to the upside in August (+5.4% month over month) should prove to be an isolated episode: the firm writes that «we expect the August rise in telephone services to be a one-off», with a far smaller contribution in September.

Energy, driven by gasoline, should instead rise by roughly 5.5%, its largest contribution since March; food should confirm a contained increase of around 0.1% for the third consecutive month; used cars, after a second strong month in August, should correct lower. Adding up the components, Continuum concludes that «overall CPI should however jump to 3.7% year on year from 3.4%» in August.

Core is the variable that matters most to the Fed. A reading above 0.3-0.4% monthly would reopen room for a hike as soon as October 28; a reading in line with expectations, around 0.2%, would leave the central bank space for a pause.

Four Fed officials, four shades of opinion

The debate inside the board is not aligned at all. Governor Christopher Waller, in remarks on October 8 reported by Reuters, said he expects «further hikes to support a more timely return of inflation to our 2% objective», but also added that «there is some flexibility on when those hikes occur» and that «the hikes do not have to come at consecutive meetings» — a position that leaves the door open to a pause on October 28 without abandoning the restrictive stance.

Waller also said he is not «particularly concerned that tighter monetary policy threatens a damaging slowdown in the economy».

Other board members, according to market readings gathered in recent weeks, sit in different places: New York Fed President John Williams is said to see little urgency but to consider one final hike in 2026 reasonable; Governor Michelle Bowman would prefer to avoid further tightening this year; Vice Chair Philip Jefferson is likewise said to see little urgency. It is a divided board, and today’s number could tip the balance one way or the other.

Markets, for their part, are currently pricing a probability of around 77-80% that the Fed leaves rates unchanged on October 28, and around 85-88% of a hike by the December meeting. The two main sources consulted for these percentages do not agree precisely on the numbers, a sign that uncertainty remains high just hours before the release.

In the hours ahead, alongside the CPI, the Fed also publishes its regular Beige Book on regional economic conditions, and Thursday brings the producer price index (PPI). The picture is completed on October 29 with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, the day after the FOMC meeting.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Flavia Provenzani on October 14, 2026 as «L’inflazione USA arriva oggi. Per la Fed del 28 ottobre è il dato più atteso dell’autunno». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.