The coming week promises to be rich in catalysts for investors, in a global environment still shaped by persistent inflation, uncertain growth trajectories, and geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on commodities and trade flows.
With no monetary policy decisions expected from the major central banks — the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank (ECB) — it will be macroeconomic data that sets the pace for markets, offering crucial reads on consumption, manufacturing, and the rates outlook.
Incoming data
Monday, July 6 will turn the spotlight on Europe first. The release of May retail sales for the eurozone will serve as an important test of household consumption resilience — a cornerstone of the zone’s recovery after a period of sluggish growth. In Germany, factory orders for the same month will help gauge the health of the manufacturing sector, which has been struggling with weak external demand and elevated energy costs.
Across the Atlantic, in the United States, the June ISM Services PMI will be in focus. The services sector — which accounts for more than 80% of the US economy — will offer updated signals on employment, new orders, and prices: key elements for anticipating the Fed’s next moves. In Asia, Japan will release household spending and wage data, critical indicators for measuring the durability of domestic demand in an economy still contending with entrenched deflation and a volatile yen.
Tuesday looks quieter, leaving room for possible statements from central bank officials and secondary data releases that could still move markets if they diverge significantly from expectations.
Watch the Fed minutes
Wednesday, July 8 will be dominated by the United States, with the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June meeting. This is the week’s most-anticipated event: investors will comb through the Fed’s internal discussions on inflation, the labor market, and the rates path, looking for clues about potential cuts or extended pauses. A more «dovish» tone could support equity indexes and weaken the dollar, while «hawkish» signals would reinforce dollar strength and put upward pressure on Treasury yields.
Thursday will shift focus to Asia, with the release of China’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation data from the world’s second-largest economy will be watched closely: an acceleration could confirm signs of recovering domestic demand, supporting commodities and Asian currencies, while a slowdown would risk reigniting fears about still-anemic growth. In Europe, German trade data will round out the picture on the competitiveness of the continent’s industrial base.
The Italian data point
Friday, July 10 will close the week with additional highlights. Germany’s final harmonized inflation estimate will arrive — a figure the ECB monitors carefully when calibrating its policy. In Canada, markets will follow June labor market data — employment change and the unemployment rate — for signals about the Bank of Canada’s next move.
For Italy, May industrial production will provide an update on the country’s manufacturing sector, still grappling with energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tepid European demand.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Redazione Money Premium on July 05, 2026 as «Market mover della settimana (6-12 luglio), occhi puntati sui verbali della Fed e sulla produzione industriale italiana. Tutti gli eventi chiave da monitorare». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
