US stock futures rose Tuesday morning. Semiconductors led the move, and the gains came despite a fresh trade shock out of Washington.

Contracts on the Nasdaq-100 climbed 1.34% to 29,164.50, well ahead of the broader market. S&P 500 futures added 0.54% to 7,524.75, Dow futures gained 0.39% to 52,277.00, and Russell 2000 futures rose 0.87% to 2,980.80, according to Yahoo Finance data as of 5:00 a.m. EDT. The Cboe Volatility Index fell 6.17% to 17.50, a sign that traders were unwinding some of Monday’s defensive positioning after stocks slipped on renewed US-Iran tensions.

Chip stocks lead the pre-market bid

The semiconductor complex is doing the heavy lifting for a second straight session. In Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI Composite closed more than 2% higher on strength in chipmakers — the clearest overnight tell that the sector’s early-July selloff is being bought.

The single-stock catalyst is Nvidia. The company disclosed a 9.3% stake in Nebius Group (NBIS), the Amsterdam-based “neocloud” provider that rents out GPU capacity. The position folds in the $2 billion investment Nvidia announced in March and consists of roughly 1.19 million shares plus 21.065 million shares underlying a warrant. The warrant cannot be exercised until September 11, 2026, with matching restrictions on selling the underlying stock. Nebius shares jumped in pre-market trading on the disclosure.

For investors, the read-through is less about Nebius — an Amsterdam-based company listed on the Nasdaq — than about how much of the AI buildout Nvidia is willing to finance directly. Taking equity in the customers who buy your chips flatters demand, and it is exactly the kind of circular arrangement skeptics have flagged as a risk in the AI trade. If you are weighing exposure, our guide to buying Nvidia stock walks through the practicalities.

A 50% tariff on Canada lands before the bell

President Trump on Monday imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, dairy and alcohol, signing three proclamations under Section 338 of the Trade Act of 1930 and accusing Canada of discriminatory treatment of US producers. The duties do not take effect for 30 days, leaving a negotiating window.

Two details matter for the open. First, the White House exempted Canadian crude from the measures — a deliberate choice with oil already elevated. Second, autos are in scope, which puts a bid under volatility in the sector on a morning when General Motors (GM) reports. Halliburton (HAL) and 3M (MMM) also report Tuesday, and the week’s marquee event is Alphabet (GOOGL) on Wednesday, where AI capital-expenditure guidance will be scrutinized harder than the earnings per share line.

Energy is the other live wire. Brent crude, the international benchmark, moved back toward $90 per barrel after the latest escalation between Washington and Tehran, easing slightly Tuesday morning. Gold rose 1.36% to $4,070.40 an ounce — equities and the classic hedge rallying together is usually a sign the market has not settled on a single story.

Rates: the Fed is now seven days out

The bond market is the quiet constraint on all of this. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note finished at 4.55% on July 17, with the 2-year at 4.18%, according to Advisor Perspectives’ Treasury snapshot — a positively sloped curve, but a level of long-end yields that still competes with equities for capital. Freddie Mac’s latest survey put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.55%, its highest since September.

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June 16-17 meeting. The next decision comes Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 p.m. EDT, at the end of a two-day meeting that will not include a refreshed dot plot. CME FedWatch pricing points to a strong probability of another hold, which makes the post-meeting press conference the real event risk and leaves this week’s earnings largely alone with the tape. Readers new to how policy transmits into the long end will find the mechanics in our explainer on investing in bonds, and the last round of Fed thinking in our coverage of the FOMC minutes.

What to Watch for the Open

  • Chip breadth, not just Nvidia. If the KOSPI’s 2% gain translates into broad US semiconductor strength rather than a single-name pop, the sector recovery has legs. If Nvidia rises while peers lag, treat it as a stock story.
  • Autos into the GM print. Guidance language on the Canadian tariffs matters more than the quarter. The 30-day delay is a negotiation, and management commentary is the market’s first read on how seriously it is being taken.
  • The 10-year at the open. A move higher in yields would pressure the same high-multiple tech names now leading futures. Watch whether the curve steepens or flattens.
  • Brent’s $90 handle. Crude sustained above $90 revives the inflation conversation a week before the Fed meets — the least convenient timing for a market pricing a comfortable hold.
  • The VIX below 18. Complacency is cheap the morning after a selloff. A failure to hold sub-18 through the session would suggest Monday’s risk-off was not fully resolved.

Index levels move fast in a session like this one; our primer on how stock indexes are constructed explains why futures on the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 can diverge as sharply as they did overnight.

Market data as of approximately 5:00 a.m. EDT on July 21, 2026. Futures levels change continuously and do not guarantee the direction of the regular session. This article is information, not investment advice.