U.S. stock futures were little changed ahead of Wednesday’s open. S&P 500 futures edged marginally higher, Nasdaq-100 futures dipped just below the flatline, and Dow futures added 0.04%, as of 5 a.m. ET. Crude oil pulled sentiment in both directions, with Brent crude near $99.60 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $90 after paring earlier overnight losses.

The bigger story for markets today may not be a data point at all. Chinese President Xi Jinping and First Lady Peng Liyuan are landing in Washington for a state visit running through Thursday, the first visit by a Chinese leader to the White House in eleven years. President Trump is set to greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews, with a state dinner Thursday night expected to draw executives from several American tech giants. Trade, tariffs and artificial intelligence are all on the agenda, and any headline out of the visit could move China-exposed chip stocks faster than any scheduled economic release.

Energy markets are digesting a separate diplomatic thread. Brent and WTI have swung in opposite directions this week as investors weigh signs of progress in U.S.-Iran talks against continued warnings from President Trump toward Tehran. Officials described a roughly three-hour meeting with Iran’s delegation this week, and any credible step back from military escalation matters directly for a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows.

The macro backdrop remains unusually hawkish for this stage of the cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4% on September 16, in a unanimous 12-0 vote under Chair Kevin Warsh. In its statement, the Fed noted that “job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little,” while adding that inflation “remains elevated.” The dollar index has since climbed near 100.6, its strongest level since late July, and the 10-year Treasury yield has held close to 4.93%, both consistent with markets still pricing in some odds of another hike before year-end.

Tuesday’s session showed how much appetite remains for AI-linked names despite the higher-rate backdrop. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,244.28 and the S&P 500 finished at 7,764.64, even as the Dow slipped 185 points, or 0.36%, to 51,864. The gains were driven largely by chip and infrastructure stocks after a strong reception for Meta’s new “Muse” AI agent.

That split between a record-setting Nasdaq and a softer Dow is worth watching today too. Higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar tend to weigh more on rate-sensitive and dividend-heavy sectors than on the AI infrastructure names that have carried the market since the Fed hike. If the flash PMI comes in hot and adds to bets on an October rate move, that gap between growth and value could widen further into the close.

Wednesday’s calendar could reset the tone quickly. Here’s what to watch before and after the opening bell:

  • 9:45 a.m. ET: S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing and services, the first reading since the Fed’s rate decision. August’s flash manufacturing print stood at 53.2, comfortably in expansion territory.
  • Headlines out of the Xi Jinping state visit, particularly on tariffs, export controls or AI chips.
  • Oil price swings tied to the U.S.-Iran talks, still the main wildcard for the inflation outlook the Fed is watching.
  • Fed commentary and futures pricing on the odds of an October move, now that the committee has shown it is willing to hike rather than cut.

None of these threads is decisive on its own, but together they explain why futures are sitting still rather than picking a direction. Traders appear content to let the flash PMI and the first hours of the Xi Jinping visit set the tone for the rest of the week.