SpaceX Stock Surpasses Amazon by Market Value. Analyst Warns: “It Resembles the Mississippi Bubble”

SpaceX shares continue to attract strong investor interest. After closing at $201.80 on Tuesday, up 4.83% on the Nasdaq, the stock extended its gains, further boosting the market value of Elon Musk’s aerospace company.

At intraday highs, SpaceX’s market capitalization climbed to approximately $2.94 trillion, temporarily surpassing Amazon’s $2.64 trillion valuation.

For a brief period, the company also edged past Microsoft, whose market capitalization stood at roughly $2.93 trillion, before ending the trading session with a market value of around $2.65 trillion.

Although the stock surrendered part of its gains into the close, after rising as much as 16% during the session, the post-IPO momentum remains intact.

The rally that began following SpaceX’s public market debut on June 12, 2026, has continued, albeit at a slower pace than the nearly 19% surge recorded on the stock’s first day of trading.

The key question for long-term investors, however, is whether the rally is sustainable, particularly as a growing number of market observers have challenged the enthusiasm that surrounded the company’s IPO.

Analyst: SpaceX valuation detached from fundamentals

Money.it spoke with Tobias Robinson, a market analyst with over 30 years in financial services and CEO of BrokerListing.com, a research and comparison platform focused on online brokerage services and retail investing trends.

Robinson said he was “not surprised” by the buying frenzy surrounding SpaceX shares, given the extraordinary media attention that accompanied the IPO.

Nevertheless, he argues that the valuation currently assigned to the company is completely disconnected from its underlying fundamentals.

According to Robinson, the primary driver of the rally has been the exceptionally aggressive promotion of the stock.

“The valuation is fantasy based on the actual business, but the security is very highly promoted, so there’s that kind of permanent disconnect”.

In his view, the marketing strategy has worked — perhaps too well.

Robinson noted that SpaceX’s share price trajectory increasingly resembles that of Tesla during its most speculative phases, with one important distinction:

“It’s basically Tesla all over again, but with even worse finances, with losses near $4 billion in Q1 alone. It’s about shifting the public’s focus on what the business currently is and keeping the attention on the future promises. They’re promised in the near-future because that’s best for the stock, but they’re interminably delayed and there’s often very little to no progress”.

What investors appear to be rewarding, he said, is Musk’s ability to shift the market’s focus away from the company’s current financial reality and toward an ambitious vision of the future.

Capital needs remain a major challenge

According to Robinson, this narrative is also critical to SpaceX’s ability to raise capital.

“The $75 billion (now $86 billion) raised from the IPO gives them several years of runway, but they’re going to burn through that and have to raise money again. Musk doesn’t have any kind of cash flow engine that he can draw from and he can’t self-fund (like a Google, Meta, or Microsoft for their AI initiatives), so he’s entirely dependent on finding outside investors continuing to fund it”.

Given the wide range of potential outcomes, Robinson said assigning a 12-month price target is virtually impossible.

“It’s impossible to give a 12-month price target. The distribution of outcomes is extremely wide. It’s very hard to price a stock that’s built on narratives about the far future, much of which will likely never happen”.

Among the unanswered questions, he noted, are whether SpaceX will ultimately build autonomous satellite-manufacturing facilities on the Moon operated by Optimus robots, whether such facilities could extract resources from asteroids, or whether these visions are primarily serving as market narratives designed to support the stock price.

Echoes of the Mississippi Bubble

Robinson drew a striking historical parallel, comparing today’s enthusiasm for SpaceX to the Mississippi Bubble of the early eighteenth century.

The speculative frenzy centered on the shares of the Mississippi Company, led by financier John Law, who promised vast wealth through exclusive rights to develop the Louisiana territory. Investors rushed into the stock, driving valuations to extraordinary levels.

When expectations failed to match reality and investors sought to convert their banknotes into gold, confidence collapsed.

The Bank of France exhausted its reserves, triggering a financial crisis that severely damaged the French economy.

The collapse of the bubble in 1720 remains one of history’s most famous examples of speculative excess.

Robinson believes the comparison is highly relevant.

“It’s analogous to the Mississippi Bubble of the 1700s. In today’s currency, it was worth trillions of dollars at its peak. Financier John Law’s promotion of the scheme and government connections made it a major success valuation-wise and minted extreme paper fortunes. But the promises were not real and there was no economic output that forms the basic foundation and genuine value of a business”.

In his view, a similar dynamic may be unfolding today.

The concern is not simply that SpaceX shares have risen sharply, but that a growing number of analysts and market professionals are questioning whether the current bullishness can be justified by the company’s underlying economics.

SpaceX doubles down on AI with Cursor acquisition

Meanwhile, investors increasingly view SpaceX not only as an aerospace company but also as a major artificial intelligence player, particularly following its integration with Musk’s broader AI ambitions through xAI.

On Tuesday, the company announced another significant move in the sector, reaching an agreement to acquire AI startup Cursor in an all-stock transaction valued at $60 billion.

Cursor is best known for developing one of the most widely used AI-powered coding assistants, helping software developers generate, edit, and review code. Since its founding in 2022, the company has experienced rapid growth.

Last November, Cursor reported annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. In 2026, the company was ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Disruptor 50 list, underscoring its emergence as one of the fastest-growing AI firms in the industry.