US stocks closed a losing week with a strong Friday. The rebound did not change the shape of the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 517.60 points, or 0.98%, to 53,276.81 on Friday, August 21. The S&P 500 added 0.43% to 7,674.31 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.43% to 26,180.46. The Russell 2000 climbed 0.88% to 3,018.81, and the VIX fell nearly 6% to 15.08. Even so, all three major indexes finished the week lower, the second straight weekly decline for the Dow, after a bond selloff pressured risk assets from Monday onward.

That selloff is the context for everything that happens next. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% during the week, a 19-year high, before closing Friday at 5.28%. The 10-year reached 4.75%, a 20-month high, and ended the week around 4.7%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responded on Thursday by expanding the government’s liquidity buyback program beyond $4 billion per operation. «Part of it is signaling here to show that we believe yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals», Bessent told CNBC. Relief lasted less than a session before long-end yields snapped back.

Elsewhere, bitcoin ran to roughly $77,000 for its best week in two years, and gold settled at $4,680.10 an ounce — both consistent with money looking for somewhere other than long-dated government debt.

Wednesday Is the Pivot: July PCE, Then Nvidia

Two of the week’s three catalysts arrive on the same day.

At 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, August 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes July personal income and outlays, which contains the core PCE price index the Fed uses to measure progress toward its 2% target. Economists expect core PCE to hold at 3.3% year over year and headline PCE at 3.7%, unchanged from June. A third consecutive month with no visible disinflation would leave the Fed pinned more than a full point above target with the September meeting three weeks away. Readers unfamiliar with how central banks unwind stimulus in this position can start with our explainer on what tapering means and how it works.

After the close the same day, Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results. The company guided to $91.0 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%, a figure that explicitly assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China. Consensus across 40 analysts sits at $91.85 billion in revenue and $2.08 a share, roughly double the $46.74 billion and $1.05 posted a year earlier. Nvidia has beaten its own guidance for thirteen consecutive quarters, but the size of the beat has compressed from 22.8% in mid-2023 to 4.6% last quarter.

The printed quarter is not the release. The number that matters is the October-quarter guide, where consensus is $103.1 billion. A forward guide at or above that level implies the AI capital-spending curve is still compounding. A guide below it would mark the first inflection in the cycle. The customer-side evidence points up for now: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta spent a combined $166.0 billion on capital expenditures in the June quarter, up 87% from a year earlier. Investors weighing exposure ahead of the print can review our guide to buying Nvidia stock.

Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Lands on an Unusual Topic

The Kansas City Fed hosts its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from Thursday, August 27 to Saturday, August 29. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, August 28, the traditional slot for the most closely watched address of the year and his first as Chair.

The framing is unusual. This year’s theme, per the Kansas City Fed, is «Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy» — a subject with no direct bearing on the inflation and rates outlook. That gives Warsh room to say very little about September, and markets will parse the speech accordingly. His Fed has already tilted hawkish this year, a shift we covered when payrolls missed badly and rate-hike talk returned.

The pricing tells the story better than the commentary does. Ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, CME FedWatch put the probability of no change at 68.4% as of August 20, while prediction markets have the hold near 71-73%. The remainder is almost entirely a 25-basis-point hike, at roughly 26-28%. The probability of a cut is close to 1%. Traders have quietly stopped debating how fast the Fed eases and started pricing the risk that it tightens again — the kind of regime shift that sits near the top of any list of market black swans for 2026.

What to Watch for the Open

  • Monday, August 24: Bessent holds a press conference detailing the US plan to economically isolate Iran. Energy and defense names are the direct read; the broader risk is a fresh oil impulse into a stalled inflation print.
  • Midweek: July durable goods orders and August consumer confidence are both on the calendar, a read on capital spending outside the hyperscalers and on the household mood. Check the release times: the week is otherwise thin on scheduled data.
  • Wednesday, August 26, 8:30 a.m. ET: July core PCE. Consensus 3.3% year over year. An upside surprise puts the hike side of the September ladder in play before Warsh speaks.
  • Wednesday, August 26, after the close: Nvidia Q2 FY27. Watch the Q3 guide against $103.1 billion, Data Center as a share of total revenue, gross margin, and whether the China exclusion carries forward.
  • Friday, August 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote. Also due this week: annual benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls, which can reshape the labor-market picture the Fed is working from.
  • Levels: The 30-year at 5.34% is the week’s high-water mark. A close above it would confirm that the buyback program is not the fix the Treasury hoped for.

The setup is unusually clean. Inflation data, the market’s single largest earnings event, and the Fed Chair’s most-watched speech all land inside 72 hours, into a bond market already at multi-decade yield highs. Position sizing matters more than direction this week.

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