In order to win this counter-offensive, Ukraine needs to take several factors into account.
After months of anticipation and waiting, the Ukrainian counter-offensive seemingly started last weekend. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) attacked the Zaporizhzhya sector, liberating some villages in the south during the first hours of the attack.
But the frontline that runs from Kakhovka to Bakhmut is heavily fortified. Expecting an attack there, the Russian occupiers concentrated most of their defenses in the area.
Reports from the warzone indicate that Ukraine suffered heavy losses at the beginning of the war despite significant tactical advantages. Apparently, the AFU is testing which parts of the sector are weaker, concentrating their attacks there. Storozhove and Novodarivka are two of the settlements liberated by the AFU.
It’s too early to predict how the counter-offensive will unfold. By comparison, the Kherson counter-offensive last year was initially just a deception plan to attack Kharkiv. At the moment, both sides are spreading propaganda and misinformation. We will have to wait for the actual results.
After initial doubts, the West now seems very confident about Ukraine’s capabilities. The United States recently approved another $2.1 billion aid package. Europe is also increasing its support for Ukraine, with the UK’s recent Storm Shadows sales and the promised F-16 fighter jets to come in the following months.
A difficult operation
Despite the West’s huge support, Ukraine ultimately bears the brunt of the counter-offensive. Ukraine has a clear tactical advantage over Russia. Everything from troop morale to equipment, from terrain to strategic objectives favors Ukraine.
However, military science teaches us that defending is easier than attacking. The failed Russian attacks against Ukraine are a glaring example. In addition, even though the Ukrainian army might be more motivated and better equipped than the Russian one, it still holds a numerical disadvantage.
Finally, the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam could complicate matters for Ukraine. While no side has claimed responsibility for the explosion yet, the humanitarian catastrophe that ensued clearly targets Russia as the possible culprit.
The flooding in the Kherson region has killed eight Ukrainian civilians, and thousands more have been displaced. The entire sector, which could have been used for the counter-offensive, will be unpassable for months.
Luckily, the flooding should recede in a few months. At that point, the AFU will be able to use Kherson as a base for another attack. Unless, of course, the current counter-offensive will be so successful to leave Kherson back in friendly territory, far from the frontline.
A hope shared by many in the West, and a victory that could finally spell the end of this terrible war.
