The upcoming spring counteroffensive by Ukraine will hit Russia’s position in one of two spots: the East and the South.
The war in Ukraine has been silent on most fronts for the entire winter. The only notable exception was the fierce fight around the town of Bakhmut, still a contested battle despite slow Russian gains.
During the winter, both sides were building up for better weather, when they’d resume large-scale war operations. In particular, a crucial Ukrainian counteroffensive is expected to be launched this spring.
In fact, as the CNN points out, such a counteroffensive might be starting very soon or could have started already, given the lack of news coming from Ukraine as of lately. Like last year’s counter-attack, the rest of the world was given notice only after victory was certain.
Nevertheless, speculations about the exact place of attack have mounted for months. In particular, there are two spots Ukraine is likely to hit.
Option 1: the East
The least likely target option for Ukraine would be the East, liberating the Donbass and restoring the 2021 border lines.
This attack would aim for the two regional capitals of Donetsk and Luhansk, which have waged a slow war against Ukraine for 9 years now. Their respective regions have a large minority of Russians and their independence was used as a casus belli for Russia to invade.
Reconquering the Donbass would be a major morale hit for the Russians. It would also cut their supply lines with the southern front.
Such a counteroffensive is however unlikely due to the high local resistance to Ukrainian statehood and strong cohesion with Russia.
Further, the other option is much more appealing to Ukraine.
Option 2: the South
The most likely counteroffensive route Ukraine will attempt is to the south. There, Ukraine will aim at the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol, severing the land connection between Russia and Crimea.
If successful, the Russian troops currently deployed beyond the Dnieper will be surrounded on three sides and likely forced to retreat inside Crimea proper.
Geography is on Ukraine’s side. If the counteroffensive starts around the town of Zaporizhzhia, the flat terrain and good weather will be ideal for Ukraine as Russia will have a harder time defending.
According to some leaked Pentagon documents, however, this offensive is unlikely to succeed, at least in full. Russia has a large numeric advantage and Ukraine lacks in manpower. The Western tanks are also not fully deployed yet, therefore Ukraine would be forced to use less powerful equipment.
Nevertheless, Ukraine is extremely committed to reaching Crimea, possibly isolating it and depleting the Russian forces there of supplies.
If successful, this counteroffensive will conclusively tip the balance of the war in Ukraine’s favor, possibly forcing Russia to start negotiating.
