Wall Street keeps testing those who call for an imminent decline. Despite fears tied to October seasonality, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set new records in the first days of the month. The October 7 pullback brought some caution back, without erasing the proximity to the highs. Meanwhile, between October 8 and 9, a Gann calendar setup expired, as anticipated in earlier articles.
The script looks like «the boy who cried wolf»: alarms multiply, prices pull back, test short-term support, and then find the strength to climb again. That does not make every worry unfounded. It is a reminder, though, that forecasting a correction and observing a reversal already under way are two different things.
New highs and fears of a decline: what matters on the charts
In chart analysis, one sign of a bearish trend is a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The market rebounds without exceeding the previous high and then falls below the low already set. A single negative session, even a sharp one, is not enough to identify this structure.
In the technical reading proposed here, no consolidated bearish sequence has yet emerged on the Nasdaq or the S&P 500 on the daily, weekly, monthly and longer time scales. The Dow Jones, by contrast, has shown greater relative weakness lately. The divergence is a reason to watch participation in the advance, rather than automatically attributing one index’s behavior to the whole of Wall Street.
There is also a hypothesis that markets could stay strong until the midterm elections in early November. That is one possible interpretation, not a proven relationship between the political calendar and prices. Another perspective comes from a study of the past 130 years of data: the behavior of the sixth year of the decade points to a scenario favorable to a continued rally through year-end.
This historical indication should be treated as a baseline scenario. Comparable cases are few and belong to different economic contexts; without spelling out the sample and the method, it is not appropriate to assign a precise probability. Prices will confirm or refute the hypothesis.
The strength of the indexes, moreover, is not evenly distributed across companies. Apple, Costco, Moderna and Netflix show different chart situations and are the subject of negative recommendations from some investment firms. The ratings below belong to the individual banks cited and do not necessarily represent the Wall Street consensus.
Apple, Costco, Moderna and Netflix: negative ratings and chart levels
Apple: strong share price, but Barclays stays cautious. The group makes iPhones, Macs, iPads and wearables, pairing hardware with digital services, subscriptions and the App Store. In the chart reading used for this analysis, the stock sits around $337.18, close to its annual highs.
Barclays kept its Underweight rating and cut its price target from $253 to $245 on July 31, 2026, pointing to weakness in China and in services. It is a dated assessment, to be distinguished from the reference price used in this article.
On the chart, the January 2026 low at $242.76 is a medium-term structural reference. A break below it would call into question the uptrend sequence identified in the analysis. The distance from current prices shows that this is not a short-term support: signs of weakness may appear sooner.
Costco: Roth Capital’s Sell contrasts with other favorable ratings. Costco operates a network of large warehouse stores with membership-based access, offering groceries and many other product categories. The stock is in the $941 area, below its annual high of $1,094.75 set in May.
On September 25, Roth Capital reiterated Sell, with a price target of $781. In the same survey, other firms issued positive ratings, so Roth’s caution should be attributed to that single analysis.
The medium-term chart reference is $840.54, the December 2025 low. A monthly close below this area would signal a deterioration of the structure under consideration. The May high remains the upper reference for judging a full recovery.
Moderna: Citi believes expectations priced into the stock are too optimistic. Moderna is a biotechnology company specializing in drugs and vaccines based on messenger RNA (mRNA), with research programs in oncology as well. Around $196, the stock holds in the upper part of its annual range after a sharp acceleration in recent months.
On September 30, Citi downgraded its rating to Sell, while raising its price target from $60 to $80. According to the bank, the valuation embeds overly ambitious expectations for the expansion of cancer treatments.
In the chart reconstruction used, between August 18 and 19 the shares went from roughly $62 to roughly $170 (about +170%). The August 19 low of $114.46 is a significant support tied to that acceleration, but it is far from reference prices. On the upside, $217.25, the December 2022 high, is a historical resistance.
Netflix: weakness is already visible in the price structure. Netflix offers a global streaming service, produces original content and generates revenue from subscriptions and advertising. Around $71, the stock is near its annual lows and, in the chart reading proposed here, shows lower highs and lower lows.
On September 18, Wells Fargo cut its rating from Equal Weight to Underweight and its price target from $80 to $57, citing weaker viewer engagement and a weak content lineup.
A move above $108.945 would represent, in the monthly structure considered, a first higher high and a sign of improvement. It would not by itself be enough to confirm a full reversal. No numerical support was identified here for Netflix: the $57 target is the bank’s estimate, not a level derived from the chart.
These four cases show why valuation and trend should be read together. A negative rating can coexist with still-strong prices, while a bearish structure can already be in place on a stock even as the indexes set records. The central question is whether analysts’ expectations will be borne out by company results and by price behavior.
Disclaimer: The information and considerations in this article should not be used as the sole or main basis for investment decisions. Readers remain free to make their own investment choices and fully responsible for them, since only they know their risk tolerance and time horizon. The information is provided for informational purposes only, and its publication does not constitute, and should not be considered, an offer or solicitation of public savings.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Gerardo Marciano on October 10, 2026 as «Wall Street aggiorna i massimi, ma sulle azioni Apple, Costco, Moderna e Netflix arrivano giudizi negativi». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
