Erdoğan is drawing closer to Europe and the West: is this really the case and what does Turkey want from the EU? An analysis of the relationship between two crucial but problematic global players.
Erdoğan is under special observation these days, above all to understand what he is really plotting towards Europe and the West in such a complex moment for world politics shaken by the war in Ukraine.
The relations between Turkey and the European Union are back in the spotlight. Analysts want to understand what the Turkish president’s strategy really is, grappling with the urgency of restoring confidence in his nation, overwhelmed by economic skepticism and financial.
Looking at recent news, it should be emphasized that at the summit in Lithuania on Monday, Erdoğan finally accepted Sweden’s entry into NATO.
The clever Turkish political maneuver was greeted with relief by the whole alliance and marked the latest in a series of decisions that have "reduced" tensions between Ankara and the West. “We are entering a new era of relations between Turkey and the West”, said Murat Yeşiltaş, director of foreign policy studies at Seta, a Turkish think tank with close ties to Erdoğan and his government.
But is it really so? How can relations between Türkiye and Europe evolve today? An analysis to deepen the ambitions - especially economic and geopolitical - of Erdoğan and the EU.
The challenge is economic for Erdoğan: what does he want from the EU
Turkey’s change of tone comes as it desperately tries to attract foreign investors who fled during years of economic crisis: this is the summary of a reflection in the Financial Times.
Turkey’s current account deficit reached $37.7 billion in 2023, a record high. Erdoğan’s government hopes that international inflows will help finance the huge gap.
While Russia and the Gulf countries have provided financial support in recent years, Erdoğan’s new economic team also hopes to get investment from the United States and Europe. “Foreign policy is directly influenced by economic relations. So if the West and Turkey can open a new page, the economy will be the number one topic”, Yeşiltaş stressed, adding that Erdoğan was recalibrating his foreign policy after winning the May election.
Relations with the West have soured since Erdoğan first came to power in 2002, with US and European leaders increasingly concerned about the Turkish president’s slide towards autocracy.
Turkey’s) decision to deepen its economic ties with Moscow following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year has also annoyed Turkey’s Western partners. Erdoğan earlier this year said Turkey was closer to Putin than to Washington.
In this context, the Turkish president’s move to NATO appears to be a turning point. But caution is a must. Many analysts see Turkey’s efforts to revitalize relations with the West as more of a tactical move. Indeed, Ankara should maintain its cordial relations with Russia due to Turkey’s dependence on oil and gas imports and because Moscow is a major player in Syria, which is also a strategic priority for the Erdoğan administration.
“Ankara’s priority is to maintain a certain balance to expand its room for maneuver and its influence as a regional power and global player”, said Emre Peker of Eurasia Group. Erdogan’s NATO moves and openings towards the EU are tactical and in line with Turkey’s broader geopolitical ambitions: there is no U-turn, according to the analyst.
What about Europe? What does he want from Türkiye
There is no doubt that Turkish-European relations are valuable for both sides. The two actors became transactional partners in 2015 when Erdoğan agreed to take in thousands of refugees in exchange for billions in EU financial support. But this failed to change the report’s general tenor.
Now, however, Erdoğan is fresh off a decisive election victory in May that solidified his 20-year grip on Turkish politics. And he counts that his newfound influence as a key NATO ally and intermediary between Ukraine and Russia could make him more popular in the West.
A few hours before signing Sweden’s NATO offer, Erdoğan held a scheduled 90-minute meeting with European Council President Charles Michel. The two explored the relationship between the EU and Turkey, addressing topics of common interest: from the economy and trade to migration.
In an EU diplomatic document viewed by Politico.eu we see, not surprisingly, that “Russia’s war in Ukraine has increased Turkey’s geopolitical relevance. And the EU has a strategic interest in a stable and secure environment in the Eastern Mediterranean”. This can make Turkey useful for Europe.
One option to reconnect could be to renew the EU-Turkey customs union, which has been in place since 1995. The customs union facilitates trade between the two partners but is in dire need of modernization to reflect changes in technology and global supply chains.
The biggest goal for Turkey, however, is visa liberalization, which would allow Turkish citizens to travel visa-free in the bloc for extended periods, freeing them from the onerous process they have to go through just to enter the EU.
Finally, another possibility is to relaunch the so-called EU-Turkey dialogue, which stalled in 2021 after the ill-fated Sofagate meeting between Erdoğan and top European officials. Michel, the head of the European Council, was directed to take a seat next to Erdoğan during the meeting, leaving his European Commission partner, Ursula von der Leyen, relegated to the couch: a diplomatic faux pas that sparked acrimony and accusations of sexism.
Restarting such high-level dialogues could be crucial for Turkey, allowing the EU to open channels with Erdoğan without touching the much more complex and controversial prospect of membership.
Turkey and Europe continue to be intertwined in common interests, albeit in a context full of pitfalls. Original article published on Money.it Italy 2023-07-13 12:39:45. Original title: Cosa vuole (davvero) Erdoğan dall’Europa
