Russian crude continues to travel albeit at a reduced pace. Where is it headed according to data updated in July? Here is the tracking of some routes, between China, India, Egypt, and Europe.
Pressured by sanctions and geopolitical tensions, Russian oil has often changed direction in the last two years.
Analyzing where the flows of crude oil from Russia are currently headed helps to understand how the black gold routes are changing and how global fragmentation is shaping new trade relationships.
The updated data first states that the four-week average Russian oil exports fell to the lowest level since late August last year, in a slump that cut 710,000 barrels per day since the recent peak in April. The plunge occurred despite a small increase in weekly flows.
The decline, the fourth in a row, likely stems from Russia’s improved compliance with an OPEC+ production target. Moscow plans to make further production cuts later this year and during the warmer months of 2025, to compensate for pumping above the quota, set by the group, earlier this year.
In this context of Western sanctions, cartel pricing and production strategies of oil countries, and trade networks between friendly countries, this is where Russian oil is heading.
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There are several active Russian crude routes, as recorded by some companies and reported by Bloomberg. A total of 28 tankers loaded 21.78 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to July 28, vessel tracking data and port agent reports showed.
shipments from Baltic ports fell below 1 million barrels per day, matching their lowest since December 2022. But the decline was offset by a rise in exports from other terminals.
A fourth sanctioned Russian tanker took on a cargo. The Viktor Bakaev, specifically, left Primorsk on July 21 and is now heading on the Northern Sea Route to China. All three other designated vessels carrying Russian crude subsequently transferred their cargo to other vessels, hiding their locations from automated tracking systems.
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The first barrels have now been unloaded in China, according to TankerTrackers.com Inc., which specializes in detecting secret cargo movements. The other two appear to have been transferred to the supertanker Oxis in the Gulf of Oman and the area now headed through the Strait of Malacca.
sanctions are increasingly delaying or interrupting payments to and from countries such as China, India, and Turkey. This is making it difficult, and sometimes impossible, to transact, particularly with China.
Approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil per day were loaded onto tankers bound for China. The Asian nation’s seaborne imports have increased from around 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day with delivery from Russia via pipeline, either directly or via Kazakhstan.
Flows on India-bound vessels averaged 1.51 million bpd, down from the revised figure of 1.7 million for the period to July 21. Both the Chinese and Indian figures are likely to increase.
The equivalent of about 220,000 barrels per day was on ships reporting Port Said or Suez in Egypt.
Where do the unknown cargoes go?
It should be highlighted that the so-called unknown cargo volumes, which are around 10,000 barrels per day in the four weeks up to July 28, are those on oil tankers that do not show a clear destination.
Most come from Russia’s western ports and continue to transit the Suez Canal, but some may end up in Turkey. Others may be moved from ship to ship, with the majority of such transfers now taking place in the Mediterranean, most recently off Morocco or near Sohar in Oman.
Russian crude oil in Europe
Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports to European countries have ceased, with flows to Bulgaria halted late last year. Moscow also lost about 500,000 barrels per day of exports via pipeline to Poland and Germany in early 2023, when those countries halted purchases.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia’s western ports, with flows in the 28 days to July 28 falling to around 235,000 barrels a day, the lowest level since February.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-07-30 15:34:25. Original title: Chi sta acquistando il petrolio russo?
