Between blackouts and soaring bills, this summer’s high temperatures have already tested Europe’s energy system. The continent’s real problem, however, may arrive with winter. Gas inventories are lower than at the same point last year, and several factors are making the supply picture more uncertain.

According to Oxford Economics, a particularly cold winter could trigger a fresh increase in gas prices, with knock-on effects on inflation.

Gas storage: what has changed since 2025

Storage data show that Europe is approaching the winter season with less gas in the ground than at the same point in 2025. As of August 13, 2026, Italian storage sites stood at 78.22% of capacity, holding roughly 159.1 TWh of gas. On the same day in 2025, inventories were at 84%, equal to 171.04 TWh.

These figures measure how full the storage sites are relative to their maximum capacity. Storage can be thought of as one large reserve of gas: during the warmer months, when demand is generally lower, the energy system accumulates fuel in the depots. When the cold months arrive, demand picks up again and the gas is progressively withdrawn. That is why the goal is to enter winter with inventories that are high enough.

Returning to the Italian case, the depots are clearly less full than a year ago and contain less gas in absolute terms — a gap of about 12 TWh compared with August 13, 2025. Looking at the European Union as a whole, there is roughly 146.7 TWh less gas in storage than at the same moment in 2025.

Why less gas in storage can become a winter problem

As of August 13, 2026, EU storage sites were at 59.92% of capacity, holding around 677.23 TWh of gas. This is not a danger threshold, but it does indicate that Europe is starting from a lower fill level than last year — and storage exists precisely to be drawn on when demand rises.

If the winter is mild, consumption can stay relatively contained and inventories may be sufficient even from a lower starting point. If the winter is unusually cold, the picture changes. As households burn more gas, storage empties faster. If imports at the same time are not enough to offset the increase in demand, operators have to look for additional gas on the international market. That is when pressure on prices can build: when many countries are chasing more gas simultaneously, the extra demand can push quotations higher.

For that reason, a particularly cold winter could turn into a problem for household bills — above all if higher wholesale quotations are passed through quickly to consumers.

Is another 2021-2022 style energy crisis on the cards?

Oxford Economics analysts consider a repeat of the 2021-2022 energy crisis a remote risk. The global market today has more LNG (liquefied natural gas, which can be shipped by sea and imported by countries equipped with dedicated terminals) available, and Europe has more import capacity than it did in previous years.

In the event of a harsh winter, the problem for European countries would not necessarily be physically running out of gas, but having to buy it at far higher prices if demand rises while supply tightens.

Why a gas price spike reaches Italian bills so quickly

To understand how these increases hit consumers’ wallets, it helps to distinguish between the wholesale price of gas and the price households actually pay. The first is the price formed on the energy market when gas is bought and sold before it reaches the end consumer. If it rises, that does not automatically mean the bill goes up immediately.

Contracts, and the way tariffs are updated, come into play. In some European countries — Germany and Austria among them — fixed-price contracts lasting 12 or 24 months are very common. Consumers there are temporarily shielded from a wholesale spike, because until the contract expires they keep paying the same amount.

The situation is different in Italy, France and Spain, where changes in the wholesale price can feed through to retail prices far faster. In those countries, according to Oxford Economics, the adjustment can happen within roughly a month.

Higher energy costs could then raise expenses for businesses and transport, with further effects on the prices of goods and services. In a scenario combining a particularly harsh winter with a sharp rise in energy prices, Oxford Economics estimates that inflation could exceed 3.5% by the end of 2026 and remain above 3% in 2027.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Emanuela Ceccarelli on August 22, 2026 as «Gas, l’Europa rischia un inverno difficile. Cosa può succedere alle bollette». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.