The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its interest rate decision today at 8:00 p.m. Italian time (2:00 p.m. ET), followed half an hour later by a press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, futures markets are pricing in an 89.5 percent probability of a quarter-point hike, moving the federal funds rate from the current 3.50-3.75% range to 3.75-4.00%, with only a 10.5% chance of no change. If confirmed, it would be the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023.

Markets arrive tense: Treasury yields at their highest since 2007

The eve of the decision was marked by a fresh surge in US bond yields. On Tuesday, September 15, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, with the 30-year yield climbing to 5.39%.

David Morrison, an analyst at TradeNation, observed that «investors are demanding compensation for elevated levels of public debt and a deficit that keeps growing», while Carol Schleif, Chief Market Strategist at BMO Wealth Management, added that «even though this year’s rise in bond yields has been orderly and hasn’t happened overnight, these elevated levels could persist for a while longer». This morning, the 10-year German Bund is trading at 3.54% and the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) at 3.05%.

Oil under pressure

The second factor complicating the picture for the Fed is oil. This morning, Brent crude is trading around $108.08 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $105.12, after WTI gained 4.4% on Tuesday, hitting its highest level since May 2026.

Two separate developments are pushing prices higher. On one side, Saudi Arabia suspended crude oil loadings from the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea after a drone attack damaged the East-West pipeline, with Saudi Aramco informing some European customers that it was canceling certain shipments planned for September, according to Reuters. On the other, production disruptions in Libya have added to concerns about global supply.

What to expect today from Warsh’s Fed

Chairman Warsh laid the groundwork for decisive action back on August 28, in his «In Our Time» speech at Jackson Hole: «the responsibility for 65 months of elevated, persistent inflation falls squarely on the central bank», he said, adding that the Fed «must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, clearly and at a sufficient pace».

Ahead of tonight’s decision, today’s calendar also includes the release, at 2:30 p.m. Italian time, of US retail sales data for August. Asian equity markets were mixed this morning: the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.07% to 63,415.20 points, and South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.10% to 6,634.09 points, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng had closed down 1% on Tuesday.

Editor’s note

This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Ufficio Studi Money.it on September 16, 2026 as «Oggi la Fed decide, verso il primo rialzo dal 2023. Treasury al massimo dal 2007 e petrolio ai livelli più alti da mesi». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.