Volodymyr Zelensky knows what Ukraine needs to win against Russia. However, the West is still reluctant... for now.
The war in Ukraine is coming to a standstill again, as the battle of Bakhmut sees the slow but inevitable conquest of the Russian forces. Talks of a Ukrainian counter-offensive have stopped when Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky signaled that his country was not ready yet.
Ukraine is betting its own survival on this counter offensive. A failure would likely see a stop in Western aids and the creation of a Korean-style border on the current line of contact. Kyiv’s high command wants and needs to reconquer as much territory as possible before the West decides the war is not worthy of support anymore.
But to conduct such a massive counter offensive, especially against Russian forces that are heavily fortified on the whole perimeter, is not a simple task. Russia might lack morale and its equipment might be obsolete, but they have numbers on their side.
Ukraine has a serious manpower issue, which so far has worked out thanks to the modern, sophisticated and lethal Western weapons. However, military history teaches us that going on the offensive with numerical inferiority could be a recipe for disaster.
This is why Zelenskyy is delaying the counter offensive as much as possible. In the meantime, he is touring European capitals to obtain the one thing that might seriously give Ukraine the upper hand.
Storm Shadows and F16
The most important weapon Zelensky obtained in his recent trip were the Storm Shadow long-range missiles. This extremely expensive missile has almost double the range of the HIMARS, the best weapon at the disposal of Ukraine beforehand.
Storm Shadow missiles have been confirmed to Ukraine by the United Kingdom and France, and some reports have them already at the front.
A Storm Shadow has to be mounted on a fighter jet and fired from the air. Ukraine plans on using these missiles to cut Russian supplies in the upcoming counter offensive. What Zelensky would truly want for its nation, however, are the fighter jets themselves.
Zelensky pleaded to the West for the sale of modern F16 fighter jets for months, but no nation has given the green light yet.
After all, not only are F16 jets extraordinarily expensive, they also require long and detailed training which Ukrainian pilots don’t have. Furthermore, the United States (F16 manufacturer) would rather not have Russia capture one of their jets and reverse engineer it.
Finally, Russian planes might be worse than F16s, but they still number in the thousands. A few hundred F16 would not have the necessary firepower to gain air superiority against Russia. On the other hand, F16s could still help a great deal in the counter offensive if they are strategically concentrated in one sector.
Nevertheless, Zelensky seems to have convinced the West to at least consider the idea. The United States, the UK and most recently France have all agreed on a training program for Ukraine’s pilots.
The training will take months, a time that Zelensky can use to better prepare for the counter offensive and, if possible, actually convince the West on F16 sales. After all, a similar impasse seemed to prevent Ukraine from having Western tanks. And now US Abrams are on their way to the Ukrainian front.
