The coming week shapes up as a period of unusual intensity for global financial markets, dominated by a string of high-impact macroeconomic releases coming mainly from the United States, with meaningful spillovers onto the Pacific region and Europe as well.
With central banks holding a cautious stance after the monetary-policy moves of the first half of the year, investors and analysts will have a chance to gauge the resilience of US domestic demand, the trajectory of inflationary pressures, and the strength of the housing market — all factors capable of shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
The key data to watch
Tuesday opens the most significant phase with the monetary-policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The central bank, which has already taken its benchmark rate to 4.35% over the course of 2026, is expected by most observers to leave the cost of money unchanged, though residual scenarios of a further hike are not entirely ruled out given lingering inflation risks tied to energy dynamics and domestic demand. The release of the Statement on Monetary Policy and the subsequent press conference will offer valuable clues about the Australian central bank’s view on the disinflation path and the resilience of the local labor market, with potential repercussions for the Australian dollar and the equity markets of the Asia-Pacific region.
On the same day in the United States, attention will focus on the small-business optimism index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and, above all, on July’s existing-home sales figures released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The latter are a crucial gauge of the health of the American real-estate sector, already tested by elevated mortgage rates and still-high prices. A further contraction in transactions, following the signs of weakness seen in prior months, could reinforce concerns about a slowdown in household spending, while a better-than-expected reading could support the narrative of more resilient residential demand.
What will the Fed do with this data?
The heart of the week arrives on Wednesday, August 12, with the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). After June’s reading, which showed an annual increase of 3.5% and a negative month-on-month dynamic, the market will scrutinize both the headline component and the core measure, which strips out food and energy. Further moderation in prices would strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve more inclined to consider monetary easing in the second half of the year, while an unexpected rebound could reignite fears of incomplete disinflation and push US government bond yields higher. Alongside it, July’s federal budget balance will also be published — useful for monitoring the evolution of the deficit and fiscal dynamics at a time of heightened focus on public debt.
Thursday continues the analysis of price pressures with July’s Producer Price Index (PPI), again from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This indicator, which measures inflation at the source, often provides advance signals about future Consumer Price Index dynamics, and it will be accompanied by the usual initial jobless claims data. In parallel, in Europe, attention may turn to euro-area industrial production for June, a figure capable of confirming or refuting the signs of weakness in the continental manufacturing sector already seen in prior months. A disappointing reading would reinforce doubts about the European recovery, while a result above expectations could offer temporary support to the euro.
The week closes with the most significant American sequence: July’s retail sales and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer-sentiment reading for August. Retail sales are one of the most direct barometers of households’ willingness to spend, and after the modest increase recorded in June, the market will assess whether consumption is holding up or whether the first signs of fatigue are emerging. The sentiment gauge, for its part, will provide an updated picture of inflation expectations and consumers’ perception of economic conditions — elements the Federal Reserve watches closely in its deliberations.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by the Money.it markets desk on August 09, 2026 as «Market movers (10-16 agosto), perché i dati in uscita questa settimana possono ribaltare le attese sulla Fed?». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
