The coming week concentrates top-tier macroeconomic data from the United States, the Eurozone, and Italy, along with possible signals from China.
These are not merely numbers to mark on a calendar: they capture the real pulse of the economy and shape expectations for interest rates, the value of currencies, bond yields, and equity prices. Understanding what they mean makes it possible to read, with greater clarity, the dynamics that will move portfolios in the months ahead.
Counting down to the FOMC meeting
Let’s start with the United States, where the marquee event is without doubt the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, scheduled for July 28–29, with the rate announcement and a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell on the 29th. Investors will arrive at this appointment with a picture already enriched by several leading indicators. On July 27, June durable goods orders will be released: a forward-looking gauge of business investment spending and of the health of the manufacturing sector. A weaker-than-expected reading could signal a slowdown in industrial activity, while a stronger result would reinforce the idea of an economy that is still resilient. The same day will also bring the Dallas Fed manufacturing index and several Treasury auctions (3- and 6-month bills, 2- and 5-year notes), which will offer a first look at demand for US public debt and at expected yields.
July 28 will be an even busier day. Out come the advance goods trade balance for June, retail and wholesale inventories, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for the twenty largest cities (May data), and the Conference Board consumer confidence index. The Case-Shiller index is watched especially closely because the US housing market is a pillar of household wealth and a transmission channel for monetary policy. If home prices keep showing moderate growth, they will support the “soft landing” thesis; a sharper slowdown could instead fuel fears of cooling domestic demand. Consumer confidence, for its part, anticipates the propensity to spend: a drop could foreshadow weaker consumption in the coming months, with knock-on effects on growth and inflation.
On July 29, in addition to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, data on the mortgage market and the EIA’s oil stockpiles will arrive. Market consensus expects the Fed to hold the fed funds rate at its current level (around 3.75%, according to the projections in circulation). The real focus will be the language of Powell’s press conference and any update to the economic projections. Traders will look for clues on when a rate-cutting cycle might begin and on how worried the central bank is about persistent services inflation or any signs of weakness on the employment front.
The following day, July 30, brings two data points of enormous importance: the preliminary second-quarter GDP and the core PCE index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation). The June PCE and its core components will provide an updated picture of the trajectory of consumer prices and of services. If core inflation proves more persistent than expected, the Fed could appear more cautious on cuts; conversely, a rapid cooling would open the way to more decisive easing. The advance second-quarter GDP, together with the personal income and spending components, will complete the picture: robust growth with moderate inflation is the “golden” scenario markets love; weak growth or still-high inflation creates tension.
The data coming from Europe
Moving to Europe, the context is shaped by the recent European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting of July 22–23. Although the rate decision is already known, the week under review will bring data that help assess whether economic conditions justify a further adjustment of monetary policy in the coming months. On July 27, figures on lending to businesses and households and on the M3 monetary aggregate for June will be published: these indicators reflect how effectively monetary policy is being transmitted to the real economy. Moderate credit expansion could confirm that current rates are curbing demand in a controlled way.
On July 30, Eurostat will release the flash estimate of second-quarter GDP for the Eurozone, together with the economic sentiment index, the June unemployment rate, and confidence indices for consumers, industry, and services. These data are crucial because the Eurozone has shown tepid growth over recent quarters, driven mainly by services while manufacturing has struggled. A better-than-expected GDP reading would reinforce the narrative of a gradual recovery; a disappointing result could instead push markets to price in more aggressive rate cuts from the ECB in the coming months. The next day, July 31, brings the flash estimate of July inflation, both the headline and core indices. Services inflation remains a sore point for the ECB; an unexpected acceleration could complicate the path toward normalization.
Auctions and data from Italy
For Italy the picture is particularly interesting because the country must reconcile modest growth, high public debt, and BTP (Italian government bond) yields that are sensitive to central-bank moves. On July 28, auctions of short-term BTPs (including inflation-linked BTP€i) will take place, and the following day the six-month BOT (Italian Treasury bill) auction. These events will offer a direct thermometer of demand from Italian and foreign institutional and retail investors. A smooth placement at contained yields would signal confidence; tensions could instead emerge if global markets become more volatile in the wake of the US decisions.
On July 29, ISTAT (Italy’s national statistics office) will publish May industrial sales, an indicator of domestic demand and of exports in the Italian manufacturing sector. On July 30, the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP, the June unemployment rate, the medium-to-long-term BTP auction, and the June producer price indices will arrive. Italy’s preliminary GDP is followed closely because the country has historically had more cyclical growth than the Eurozone average; a reading in line with or above expectations could support government-bond yields. On July 31, the July business and consumer confidence indices and the preliminary estimate of July inflation will be released. Italian inflation, historically more volatile than Germany’s, directly affects the real yields on BTPs and expectations for the monetary policy stance that Banca d’Italia (the Bank of Italy) brings to the ECB’s Governing Council.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Redazione Money Premium on July 26, 2026 as «Market movers (27 luglio-2 agosto), la Federal Reserve deciderà il destino dei tassi e dei mercati globali». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
