Oracle reports fiscal first-quarter earnings Thursday, and Wall Street has one number in mind: the backlog.

Oracle is scheduled to post its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the market close on Thursday, September 10, with a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. Analysts polled by Wall Street estimate earnings of $1.74 per share on revenue of roughly $19.14 billion, according to consensus figures compiled ahead of the release. Oracle’s own guidance, issued when it reported fiscal fourth-quarter results in June, called for revenue growth of 27% to 29% in US dollars and non-GAAP earnings between $1.72 and $1.76 a share.

Why This Report Matters More Than Usual

The number that will move the stock is not EPS. It is Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO — the contracted revenue Oracle has booked but not yet delivered. In its fiscal fourth quarter, Oracle said RPO jumped $85 billion in three months to a record $638 billion, up 363% from a year earlier, according to the company’s earnings release filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Total revenue for the quarter was $19.2 billion, up 21%, and cloud infrastructure revenue nearly doubled, up 93% to $5.8 billion.

Much of that backlog traces back to a single relationship: OpenAI’s roughly $300 billion, multiyear cloud and compute agreement with Oracle, part of the Stargate data-center buildout that is meant to add 4.5 gigawatts of capacity. “Our cloud infrastructure growth demonstrates our ability to meet the increasing demand for AI workloads,” Oracle chief executive Safra Catz told analysts on the June earnings call. Investors on Thursday will be listening for whether that demand is broadening beyond OpenAI or whether Oracle’s fortunes remain tied to one customer’s spending plans.

The Stock That Has Investors on Edge

Oracle’s own shares tell a more nervous story than its backlog does. The stock trades in the $156 to $160 range heading into the report — down roughly 25% for the year — even after surging 40% in a single session last September on the strength of an earlier RPO jump. The pullback reflects a familiar worry: building AI data centers at this scale requires enormous capital spending and financing, and margins have come under pressure even as revenue climbs. Analysts have not abandoned the stock — the average 12-month price target of $242.69 implies more than 50% upside from current levels — but the gap between that target and where shares actually trade shows how much skepticism has crept into the AI infrastructure trade generally, the same skepticism that has periodically hit Nvidia’s own valuation debate and fueled arguments that a single disappointing cloud quarter from any major player could rattle the whole group.

What to Watch When the Numbers Land

  • RPO growth: another jump toward or past $700 billion would reinforce the backlog story; a slowdown would revive concentration-risk concerns tied to OpenAI.
  • Cloud infrastructure revenue: the 93% growth rate set in the fourth quarter is the bar. Anything materially below it invites questions about capacity constraints or demand.
  • Capital spending and cash flow: Oracle has been funding data-center buildouts with a mix of cash flow and new debt. Guidance on capex and free cash flow will show how sustainable that financing pace is.
  • Full-year guidance: Oracle’s fiscal 2027 targets call for 34% constant-currency revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS of $8.05. Any reiteration or revision Thursday will set the tone for the broader AI infrastructure trade heading into the fall earnings season.

Sources: Oracle Corporation, Form 8-K and Q4 FY2026 earnings release, investor.oracle.com, June 10, 2026. Oracle Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, Investing.com/Motley Fool, June 10, 2026. StockAnalysis.com, Oracle (ORCL) stock data, September 2026. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR filings, Oracle Corporation (CIK 0001341439). Data Center Frontier and Data Center Dynamics, reporting on the OpenAI-Oracle Stargate agreement, 2026.