S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 25 points, or 0.05%, in early trading ahead of the New York open on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. The bounce comes one session after a sharp risk-off slide. The S&P 500 lost 1.2% Monday to close at 7,408.50, the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.5% to 26,225.15, and the Dow gave up 537.29 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 49,526.17. Nvidia (NVDA) tumbled 4.4%, the worst-performing Dow component, as semiconductors led the tape lower across the session.

Why futures bounced overnight

The catalyst arrived Monday evening from the White House. Trump said he had shelved «a very major attack» on Iran «scheduled for tomorrow» following appeals from the Emir of Qatar, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed. «I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while», Trump wrote, citing «very big discussions with Iran».

Oil moved first. Brent crude futures for July delivery fell 2.09% to about $109.76 a barrel after closing Monday at $112.10. WTI for June dropped 0.75% to $107.84, off Monday's $108.66 close. The italico Strait of Hormuz — which still serves as a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows — remains effectively blockaded, so the de-escalation is a pause, not a peace deal.

Asia higher, Europe muted, Japan's GDP surprise

Asia-Pacific markets opened broadly positive. Japan's Nikkei 225 led the region after first-quarter GDP came in at an annualized 2.1%, well above the 1.7% Reuters poll consensus and a sharp acceleration from the prior quarter's 1.3%, according to the Cabinet Office release. The data is a tailwind for the yen but also reinforces pressure on the Bank of Japan, where the 30-year JGB hit a record high yield this week.

In Europe, premarket pricing was milder. Euro Stoxx 50 futures gained 0.2% and Stoxx 600 futures advanced 0.3% in the early session, with energy stocks lagging the broader bid as crude eased.

Yields are the brake

For US futures, the move higher comes against a hostile bond-market backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.60%, near a 15-month high; the 30-year Treasury sits above 5.10%, the highest since May 2025. Germany's 10-year bund yield is at levels last seen in May 2011, and Japan's 10-year JGB is at its highest since 1997. The global synchronous bond rout — fueled by sticky energy-driven inflation and dimming Fed rate-cut expectations — is what kept Monday's equity bounce from materializing and what is capping the futures lift overnight.

Traders now price roughly a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike in October and a 30% chance in December, a complete reversal from the cut-dominant outlook that prevailed earlier this year. April's CPI print of 3.8% year-on-year — the hottest since May 2023 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — has put a hawkish floor under yields.

Home Depot delivers, retail in focus

Pre-market earnings gave bulls a second leg. Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal Q1 2026 net income of $3.30 per share, or $3.43 adjusted, on revenue of $41.77 billion, beating the Zacks consensus of $3.40 EPS and $41.49 billion in revenue. US comparable sales rose 0.4% and total comps were up 0.6%. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance for total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% and adjusted EPS growth of up to 4%. HD traded modestly higher in the pre-market.

A heavy retail tape unfolds across the week, with Target (TGT) and Lowe's (LOW) reporting Wednesday and Walmart (WMT) on Thursday morning. They are the next read on whether the US consumer is bending under higher gasoline and shelter costs.

What to watch at the open

Three pivots into the bell:

  • italico Crude headlines. Any reversal on the Iran «pause» story — or any signal that Hormuz traffic resumes — will dominate the tape. A break of Brent back above $112 reopens the inflation-shock script we walked through here on Monday.
  • italico The 10-year. Watch the 4.60-4.65% band on US10Y. A push toward 4.70% would likely override the de-escalation lift and pressure rate-sensitive megacaps and homebuilders again.
  • italico Nvidia setup. NVDA reports Wednesday after the close, with consensus near $78 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.77, per Bloomberg. Given the chip-led selloff Monday, the stock heads into the print as the single biggest binary for index direction this week, alongside Wednesday's release of FOMC minutes — the last under former Chair Jerome Powell before Kevin Warsh formally took over on May 15.

The italico bottom line: futures are higher because oil cooled and the Iran headline turned, but yields are not playing along. Until US10Y rolls over, every relief bounce in equities should be treated as conditional on a bond market that has been the loudest voice in the room since the April CPI print.