Wall Street faces a rare double event Wednesday. The Federal Reserve delivers its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, and hours later two of the market’s biggest artificial-intelligence spenders — Microsoft and Meta Platforms — report earnings after the close.

Stock futures were steady in premarket trading. S&P 500 futures edged up about 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, and Dow futures slipped 0.2% as oil prices climbed on renewed Middle East tensions. The backdrop is uneasy: chip stocks are under pressure after a disappointing quarter from Asia’s SK Hynix reignited worries that AI infrastructure spending may be slowing.

A fifth straight hold — but with a hawkish tail

Economists polled by FactSet expect the Fed to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, the fifth consecutive meeting without a move. What has changed is the risk on the other side of the trade. Traders are now assigning roughly a 30% chance of a rate hike — a bet that would have looked far-fetched a few months ago.

The shift reflects one stubborn worry: inflation that refuses to cool while the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps a floor under energy prices. There will be no fresh Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, so the wording of the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will carry the full weight of guidance. Investors in rate-sensitive corners of the market — from high-growth tech to bonds — will parse every line.

Microsoft and Meta: the AI capex test

After the bell, the AI trade gets its own referendum. Microsoft is expected to post adjusted earnings of about $4.24 a share, up roughly 16% from a year earlier, on revenue near $87.62 billion, driven by Azure and Copilot. The figure investors actually care about is spending: Microsoft is on track to lay out roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures for calendar 2026.

Meta reports the same afternoon, with EPS estimates clustered around $7.18 to $7.24. The company recently lifted its full-year capex outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion to fund data centers and computing capacity. With semiconductors already wobbling, any sign that hyperscaler spending is outrunning returns could revive the fears that have dogged the Magnificent Seven all summer.

What to Watch for the Open

  • 2:00 p.m. ET — Fed statement. A hawkish hold, or a lone dissent favoring a hike, could jolt Treasury yields and weigh on equities.
  • 2:30 p.m. ET — Warsh press conference. With no dot plot to lean on, tone is everything.
  • After the close — Microsoft and Meta. Watch Azure growth, Meta’s ad revenue, and above all capital-spending guidance.
  • Oil and the dollar. Fresh Iran headlines are keeping crude bid and could complicate the inflation picture.
  • Chip sentiment. SK Hynix’s miss set a cautious tone; semiconductors will trade on every AI-spending signal.

For investors, Wednesday is less about a single number than about direction: whether the Fed still leans toward its next move being a cut — or whether the door to a hike is quietly reopening.

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