U.S. stock futures were little changed early Thursday. Traders were waiting on two data points due before the bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.13%, and S&P 500 futures added 0.11%. Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.11% as megacap technology shares gave back some of Wednesday’s gains.

The calm followed a relief rally sparked by Wednesday’s July Consumer Price Index. The headline index rose just 0.1% for the month and 3.4% over the past year, down from 3.5% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.2% and eased to a 2.5% annual pace, from 2.6% in June. Shelter costs accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, while the energy index fell 1.5%.

For investors, the reading did one important thing: it lowered the odds that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its September meeting. The central bank has held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, and a softer inflation trend gives policymakers room to stay on hold. As a broad gauge of inflation, the CPI is only half the picture the Fed watches — and the other half arrives Thursday.

The wholesale inflation test

The July Producer Price Index is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect final-demand prices to rise 0.2% for the month, a rebound from June’s 0.3% decline. The PPI tracks the prices producers receive for goods and services, so it often signals where consumer prices are heading next.

June’s report showed final-demand prices falling 0.3%, dragged down by a 1.4% drop in goods prices, while services edged up 0.2%. A tame July print would reinforce the message from Wednesday’s CPI and support the case that inflation is drifting back toward the Fed’s 2% goal. A hotter number would revive worries that pipeline pressures are building, a risk for Treasury bonds and rate-sensitive stocks alike.

Markets will also parse the categories economists use to estimate the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index. Airfares, portfolio-management fees and health-care costs inside the PPI feed directly into that calculation, which lands later this month.

Jobless claims and the labor market

The second release at 8:30 a.m. ET is weekly initial jobless claims. Economists forecast 202,000 new filings, up slightly from 199,000 the prior week. Claims near 200,000 are historically low and point to a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than cracking.

That backdrop matters because the Fed is weighing price stability against employment. Recent hiring data has been uneven — a weaker-than-expected jobs report earlier this cycle rattled rate expectations — so any jump in claims would feed the debate about how long policy should stay restrictive. A benign figure, by contrast, would let the market keep its focus on inflation.

Oil eases, yields in focus

Commodities offered a tailwind. Brent crude futures shed 2% to trade near $87.17 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate slid 2.2% to about $81.41. Lower energy prices tend to cool inflation expectations and relieve pressure on consumers at the pump.

Bond markets were steady ahead of the data. Yields on government bonds have swung with each inflation surprise this summer, and Thursday’s PPI could set the tone into next week’s Federal Reserve commentary. Traders will watch the 10-year Treasury yield for confirmation of the disinflation narrative that powered stocks to record territory.

On the corporate calendar, results from a handful of technology and retail names will test whether earnings can keep supporting valuations that sit near all-time highs.

What to watch for the open

  • 8:30 a.m. ET — July PPI: a print at or below the 0.2% forecast would extend Wednesday’s relief rally; a surprise above 0.3% could pressure equities and lift yields.
  • 8:30 a.m. ET — Initial jobless claims: watch for a move meaningfully above the 202,000 estimate as an early sign of labor-market softening.
  • Oil and yields: continued weakness in crude and a lower 10-year yield would reinforce the case for a Fed on hold.
  • Tech leadership: with Nasdaq futures lagging, watch whether megacap stocks stabilize or drag the broader market.

The bottom line: after a friendly CPI, a soft PPI and steady claims would let Wall Street hold near records. A hotter wholesale reading is the main risk to the open.

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