US stock futures climbed Monday morning as Wall Street returned from the extended July 4 holiday break.

At 4:30 a.m. ET, E-mini S&P 500 futures were up 0.5%, with the benchmark sitting near 7,596. Nasdaq 100 futures outpaced, rising 1.0%, led by a move higher in semiconductor and mega-cap technology names. Dow Jones and Russell 2000 futures each added roughly 0.2%.

Asian Session: Mixed Overnight

Asian markets provided a mixed backdrop heading into the US open. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed the Monday session modestly lower, still digesting last week’s soft US labor market data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng hovered near 23,100, essentially flat as traders awaited clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Shanghai Composite held steady, supported by domestic stimulus expectations.

The overnight bid in US futures reflects one dominant narrative: the June jobs miss — just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, less than half the 115,000 Wall Street consensus — reduced near-term rate-hike risk and gave equity investors room to breathe heading into the long weekend. With that tailwind still in play, Monday’s open looks constructive, particularly for technology.

Today’s Catalyst: ISM Services PMI at 10 a.m. ET

The first concrete data of the week drops this morning. The Institute for Supply Management releases its June Non-Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. ET. In May, the reading came in at 54.5, marking the strongest services expansion in three months. The employment sub-index, however, remained in contraction at 47.9 — a third consecutive monthly decline — aligning with the weak June payrolls report released last Thursday.

Three scenarios for today’s release:

  • Above 54.0: confirms services-sector resilience. Likely neutral-to-positive for equities, reinforces the soft-landing narrative without reigniting rate-hike fears.
  • 53.0–54.0: borderline but still expansionary. Keeps rate-hike odds depressed. Short-duration bonds and growth stocks benefit.
  • Below 53.0: services deceleration confirmed. Treasury yields drop as rate-hike bets deflate further — but also raises a flag on consumer spending momentum heading into Q2 earnings season.

The ISM report will be the day’s clearest signal on whether the June jobs weakness was a one-off or the start of a broader economic deceleration.

The Week’s Bigger Event: FOMC Minutes, Wednesday 2 p.m. ET

Looming over Monday’s open is the macro catalyst of the week: the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June 17-18 FOMC meeting — Chair Kevin Warsh’s first — on Wednesday, July 8, at 2 p.m. ET.

The June meeting left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but delivered a hawkish message. Warsh dropped what he called “so-called forward guidance” from the FOMC statement, arguing it was “not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.” Nine committee members projected at least one rate hike by year-end.

The complication: those minutes were written before the June jobs miss. Markets are now pricing just a 17% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting, with a full 25-basis-point move pushed to December, according to CME FedWatch. Traders will read every line for evidence of how much labor market softness the committee can absorb — and whether Warsh’s resolve is firm or conditional.

Any language suggesting the committee was already divided on a July hike could further deflate rate expectations and keep the equity rally intact.

Market Snapshot: Pre-Market Monday, July 6

  • S&P 500 Futures: 7,596 (+0.5%)
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: +1.0%
  • Dow Futures: +0.2%
  • VIX: 15.8 (down from 16.14 at Friday’s close)
  • WTI Crude: $68.60 (watch: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic reportedly tightened over the weekend)
  • Gold: $4,155
  • US Dollar Index (DXY): 100.85

The VIX sliding below 16 signals a broadly complacent market. Investors carrying diversified S&P 500 exposure should note that Wednesday’s FOMC minutes remain the real test of whether the current rally narrative holds through mid-week.

What to Watch for the Open

10 a.m. ET — ISM Services PMI (June). The number to beat is 54.0. A surprise below 53 would send 2-year Treasury yields lower by 5-10 basis points and give rate-sensitive sectors — real estate, utilities, small-caps — a short-term bid. A beat would reinforce growth confidence but could briefly revive rate-hike chatter ahead of Wednesday.

All week — Nasdaq leadership. Technology’s +1.2% pre-market gain suggests institutional buyers stepped in over the long weekend, but the sector has been the primary volatility pocket this summer. A hawkish surprise in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes could reverse those gains quickly.

Thursday, July 9 — PepsiCo Q2 earnings (pre-market). Consensus calls for EPS of $2.21, up 4.2% year over year on revenue of approximately $24 billion. Barclays last week cut its price target to $144 and warned that the company’s North American turnaround is “losing steam” — adding downside risk to the release. As a consumer-staples bellwether, PepsiCo’s guidance on pricing power and input costs will set the early tone for Q2 earnings season and offer the first real read on whether tariff-driven cost pressures are compressing corporate margins.

Holiday euphoria gave markets a clean runway into Monday. Whether that runway holds through Wednesday depends on what Kevin Warsh’s committee was saying behind closed doors on June 18.

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