Earnings, not economic data, will set the tone this week. The economic calendar is close to empty, leaving more than 80 S&P 500 companies to carry the market’s direction on their own — and they arrive right after the artificial-intelligence trade took its worst weekly beating in months.

The major indexes closed Friday, July 17, sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell 1.01% to 7,457.69, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4% to 25,520.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 406.55 points, or 0.77%, to 52,146.42. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, the Nasdaq 2.9% and the Dow 0.9%. Semiconductors led the decline for a second straight session, and rising crude prices added pressure.

Alphabet and Tesla headline Wednesday

Alphabet (GOOGL) reports Wednesday, July 22, after the close, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. It is the single most consequential number of the week. The Google parent is the third-largest U.S. company by market value at roughly $4.3 trillion and one of the AI “hyperscalers” pouring billions into data centers. Investors want the capital-spending line, not just the earnings per share figure.

The reason is fresh in the tape. Taiwan Semiconductor beat on profit last week and its stock still fell, because it raised 2026 capital spending. The market has flipped from rewarding AI outlays to questioning them.

“If Alphabet announces any type of pullbacks with respect to the spending that they’re forecasting around AI, you could see ripple effects across the entire AI ecosystem,” Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, told Reuters.

Tesla (TSLA) reports the same afternoon, with its webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET. The delivery number is already known: Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles, delivered 480,126 and deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage in the quarter. That shifts the focus to margins, the energy business and any update on the robotaxi timeline. Tesla is the most retail-owned of the Magnificent Seven, and its swings tend to run outsized relative to its index weight.

Intel and Texas Instruments carry the chip verdict

Intel (INTC) reports Thursday, July 23, after the close, with Texas Instruments (TXN) also on the calendar. Both matter more than their size suggests. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still up roughly 68% in 2026 despite the recent wobble, Intel shares have gained more than 160% this year, and Texas Instruments is up about 68%.

That kind of run sets a punishing bar. Strong reports from Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor already drew muted reactions this month, a sign expectations are priced for perfection. Because chip stocks carry an unusually heavy weighting in the major benchmarks, their reaction alone can move the stock indexes.

Beyond tech, American Express, Philip Morris International and defense contractor RTX report, giving a read on consumer credit, pricing power and defense demand.

The bigger picture: profits are still beating

The backdrop is better than last week’s price action suggests. The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500’s second quarter stood at 24.7% as of July 17, up from 23.2% at the end of the quarter on June 30, according to FactSet. Blended revenue growth was 12.8%, which would be the highest since the second quarter of 2022. Only about 10% of index members had reported at that point.

LSEG IBES data put projected second-quarter growth even higher, at 25.7%. The profit engine is not the problem. What investors are willing to pay for it is — a question that runs straight through the price/earnings ratio the market has assigned to megacap tech.

A thin data week — and a Fed that may hike

The economic calendar offers little. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for June lands Monday at 10 a.m. ET. Tuesday and Wednesday carry no noteworthy releases. Weekly jobless claims arrive Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, after the prior report showed claims at their lowest level since mid-May. Friday brings S&P Global’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET and new home sales for June at 10 a.m. ET.

There will also be no Fed commentary. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28-29, and the blackout period that bars policymakers from public remarks begins the second Saturday before a meeting — meaning the week of July 20 passes without a single Fed speech.

That silence is awkward, because the direction of travel has reversed. Fed funds futures now point to expectations that the central bank raises rates in coming months to pull inflation back toward its 2% target, not cuts. Cooler-than-expected consumer and producer price data last week eased fears of a move at this month’s meeting, but did not remove them. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on July 1 at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, that “prices are too high,” and dismissed the idea of tolerating an inflation target above 2%.

What to Watch for the Open

  • Monday: Leading Economic Index (June), 10 a.m. ET. Light session; watch whether chip stocks stabilize.
  • Wednesday: Alphabet and Tesla after the close. The AI capital-spending line is the number that matters.
  • Thursday: Jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET. Intel and Texas Instruments after the close.
  • Friday: Flash PMIs and June new home sales. Housing remains sluggish with mortgage rates elevated.
  • All week: Oil. Brent traded near $86 and WTI near $82 on Friday after a roughly 14% weekly surge tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. Sustained gains here feed straight back into the inflation debate — and into the Fed’s July 29 decision.

The setup, then, is narrow: a market near record highs, earnings growing above 24%, and two live risks — an AI trade that has stopped tolerating higher spending, and a central bank whose next move may be up rather than down.