The Dow Jones hit a fresh record high last week. Now, a quiet but critical calendar threatens to test that momentum.

US equity markets closed mostly higher during the holiday-shortened July 4 week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,024 points (+1.97%) to a record close, the S&P 500 added 1.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 finished roughly flat — weighed down by a sharp drop in technology stocks.

The catalyst: a weak June Non-Farm Payrolls report that cooled fears of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June — roughly half the 115,000 consensus forecast and the lowest monthly gain in four months. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate fell from 61.8% to 61.5%, meaning workers dropped out rather than found jobs. Leisure and hospitality, expected to benefit from FIFA World Cup activity on US soil, shed 61,000 positions.

The miss sent Treasury yields lower and gave stocks a bid heading into the holiday weekend. Now traders face a week that is light on data — but heavy on interpretation.

3 Things to Watch: July 6-10

1. ISM Services PMI — Monday, July 6, 10 am ET

The week opens with the June reading of the Institute for Supply Management Services PMI — the most important gauge of the dominant US services sector. After a strong 54.5 in May, economists expect a modest pullback to around 54.0, still solidly in expansion territory. The employment sub-index remained in contraction at 47.9 last month, making this release doubly relevant after the weak jobs report. A reading below 53 would validate the labor market softening narrative and reinforce the case for a delayed Fed rate hike.

2. FOMC Minutes — Wednesday, July 8, 2 pm ET

The headline event of the week. The Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its June 17-18 meeting — Chair Kevin Warsh’s first at the helm. The June meeting left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but delivered a hawkish signal: nine committee members projected at least one rate hike by year-end 2026, and Warsh removed what he called “so-called forward guidance” from the FOMC statement, arguing it was “not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.”

The complication: these minutes were written before the June jobs miss. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 17% chance of a rate hike at the July meeting, with a full 25-basis-point move pushed to December, per CME FedWatch. Traders will read every line for clues on how much labor market weakness the committee can absorb — and whether Warsh is signaling flexibility or resolve.

3. PepsiCo Q2 Earnings — Thursday, July 9, Pre-Market

PepsiCo (PEP) reports its second-quarter results before Thursday’s open. The consensus calls for earnings of $2.21 per share (+4.2% year over year) on revenue of approximately $24 billion (+5.7% YoY). As a consumer-staples bellwether, PepsiCo’s guidance on pricing power, volume trends, and input costs will set the tone for Q2 earnings season. The company is sensitive to both US dollar strength — the DXY slipped 0.40% last week to 100.95 — and commodity costs that have remained elevated since spring.

Also on Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 am ET and existing home sales for June at 10 am ET.

Market Snapshot: Heading Into the Week

  • S&P 500 Futures: 7,558
  • WTI Crude: $68.41 (–2.5% on the week)
  • Gold: $4,149 (+1.47% on the week)
  • US Dollar Index (DXY): 100.95 (–0.40%)
  • VIX (Fear Index): 16.14 (down from 18.40 the prior week)

The VIX pullback signals that investors are heading into the week with reduced anxiety. But the FOMC minutes could change that fast. Investors managing diversified S&P 500 positions should be prepared for volatility around Wednesday’s 2 pm release.

What to Watch for the Open

Monday, July 6: ISM Services PMI at 10 am ET. A miss below 53 could push yields lower and give equities a short-term bid — but also raise questions about consumer spending momentum.

Wednesday, July 8: FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET. The key macro catalyst of the week. Any indication that the committee seriously debated a July rate hike — before the NFP miss — could spike Treasury yields and pressure rate-sensitive growth stocks.

Thursday, July 9: PepsiCo pre-market, jobless claims at 8:30 am ET. A claims number above 240,000 would deepen the soft-landing narrative and further reduce rate-hike expectations heading into Q3.

Last week’s jobs miss gave bulls a reason to celebrate. This week, the FOMC minutes will show whether Warsh’s Fed is prepared to acknowledge what the data is telling it — or stay the hawkish course regardless.

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