Wall Street heads into the final stretch of May with momentum on its side. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,473.47, up 0.37%, capping its eighth straight weekly gain — its longest winning streak since December 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 294 points to finish near 50,580, around a record high, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,343.97.

The week ahead is shorter than usual. US stock and bond markets are closed Monday, May 25, for Memorial Day, and regular trading resumes Tuesday. That compresses a busy economic and earnings calendar into four sessions, with the heaviest events stacked on Thursday.

Thursday’s PCE report is the week’s main event

The release that matters most lands Thursday, May 28. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its Personal Income and Outlays report for April, which contains the PCE price index — the inflation measure the Federal Reserve tracks most closely. The same morning brings the second estimate of first-quarter GDP.

The distinction matters for rate-cut expectations. The Fed has repeatedly said it remains «strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective», and the PCE gauge — not the more widely quoted Consumer Price Index — is the yardstick it uses against that target. A cooler-than-expected core reading would strengthen the case for rate cuts later this year. A hot print would do the opposite, especially after April’s consumer-price report came in hotter than forecast.

The week also opens with a sentiment check. On Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence index for May, a read on how households are absorbing prices and the labor market.

Earnings: Salesforce, Costco, Dell and Marvell

With first-quarter reporting season nearly over, four S&P 500 names headline an otherwise thin calendar:

  • Salesforce (CRM) reports Wednesday after the close. Analysts expect earnings of about $3.13 a share, up roughly 21% from a year earlier, on revenue near $11.05 billion. Commentary on AI-driven demand for its Agentforce tools will be in focus.
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) also reports Wednesday. Wall Street is looking for around $0.79 a share on sales of about $2.4 billion, with its custom AI chips and data-center networking the key story.
  • Costco Wholesale (COST) reports its fiscal third quarter Thursday. Consensus calls for earnings near $4.98 a share on sales of roughly $69.6 billion — a closely watched read on US consumer spending.
  • Dell Technologies (DELL) also reports Thursday, watched mainly for AI-server demand and guidance.

The backdrop is reassuring for the bulls. Nvidia’s record quarter cleared the season’s biggest hurdle last week, with the chipmaker posting $81.6 billion in revenue and an $80 billion buyback. That removed the largest single source of earnings risk and left the market to focus on software, retail and the macro data.

Bonds, oil and the dollar

Rates remain the market’s main pressure point. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.56% on Friday after easing slightly during the session. Long-dated Treasury yields have been the swing factor for equities all month: when yields climb, high-multiple technology stocks tend to come under pressure, and when they retreat, those same names lead the rebound.

Thursday’s PCE print feeds directly into that dynamic. An inflation surprise would move the bond market first, and stocks would follow. With month-end on Friday, watch for portfolio rebalancing flows that can amplify moves in the final session.

What to watch this week

  • Tuesday, May 26: markets reopen; Conference Board Consumer Confidence for May.
  • Wednesday, May 27: Salesforce and Marvell earnings after the close.
  • Thursday, May 28: April PCE inflation and second-estimate Q1 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET; Costco and Dell earnings.
  • Friday, May 29: a quieter finish, with month-end rebalancing the main flow to watch.

For investors, the message is straightforward. A market riding an eight-week streak has little margin for a downside surprise. If Thursday’s inflation data cooperates and earnings hold up, the rally has room to extend into June. If the PCE gauge runs hot, the path of least resistance is a pullback — and the bond market will signal it first.