U.S. stock futures pointed little changed early Wednesday as Wall Street opened the second half of 2026 on a cautious note.

The flat start came one day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed out their best quarter since 2020. The S&P 500 gained roughly 14% in the April–June quarter, finishing June 30 at 7,440.43. The Nasdaq Composite surged about 20% in the same period, ending at 25,820.14 — the index’s strongest three-month run in six years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 9% in Q2, its best quarter since 2022, closing at 52,182.74.

Three tailwinds drove the record quarter: a blowout earnings season in which 85% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations (well above five- and ten-year averages), a sustained AI infrastructure buildout led by Nvidia and the hyperscalers, and an Iran ceasefire that reopened commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether those tailwinds can carry into H2 is the central question on traders’ minds.

From momentum to macro: the jobs market takes center stage

With much of the Q2 rally already priced in, investors are pivoting to the economic data calendar. The May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is due shortly after Wednesday’s open. Consensus expects job openings to ease slightly to 7.3 million. A reading above that threshold would reinforce the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias — Collin Martin, head of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, noted that “any additional strength in the labor market can help keep the Fed’s hawkish bias going.” A miss would likely lift rate-cut expectations and support growth stocks.

Also due Wednesday: ADP’s June private employment estimate and the June ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing index has spent much of the past year in contraction territory (below 50), so any move higher would be notable.

The week’s biggest event comes Thursday: the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June nonfarm payrolls report, including unemployment and hourly earnings. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Independence Day, which means Thursday’s data will be digested over the long weekend and will shape Monday’s open.

Window dressing is done — earnings season is next

A technical force also shaped Tuesday’s session: quarter-end window dressing, when large funds typically shed underperformers and buy winners before sending quarterly reports to investors. That dynamic has passed. The next major catalyst on the calendar is mid-July earnings season.

An early earnings preview arrives today: Nike (NKE) reports after Wednesday’s close. Shares are down roughly 24% this quarter. Analysts expect fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to fall about 2.1% year-over-year, with earnings per share at $0.13 — down 5.7% from a year ago. Any upside surprise could act as a sentiment lift for consumer discretionary names.

Stocks to watch at the open

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) made its debut as a Dow Jones Industrial Average component on June 30, jumping 4.8% on day one. But shares remain down about 8% over the past month amid concerns about talent attrition and a recent equity offering.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 8% Monday after Bloomberg reported that the company’s Taiwan office was raided as part of a probe into alleged chip smuggling into China — a development that expands an already-reported investigation.
  • AeroVironment (AVAV) surged more than 30% after a blockbuster earnings report Monday. CEO Wahid Nawabi cited the conflicts in Ukraine and the Iran theater as having fundamentally changed the economics of drone warfare.
  • Strategy (MSTR) fell 5% pre-market after formally abandoning its “never sell” stance on Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself was trading near $58,665, down more than 3% in the prior session.

The macro backdrop: bonds, oil, and the yen

The 10-year Treasury yield ended June 30 at 4.39%, essentially flat. WTI crude held near $70.96 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index was around 101.32, slightly softer on the day.

One notable development in currency markets: the Japanese yen hit a 40-year low against the dollar, trading around 162.45 yen per dollar. The move is renewing concern about intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which has stepped in at similar levels before.

Investors weighing whether to stay invested going into H2 can find some reassurance in market breadth data: as of June 30, 64% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average, up from just 50% a month ago. That improvement suggests the rally is less dependent on a handful of names than it was — and that the market may be less vulnerable to concentrated selling pressure in the Magnificent Seven than at previous peaks.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.60, signaling no unusual market stress despite the packed calendar ahead.

What to watch for the open — July 1

  • JOLTS job openings (May): consensus 7.3 million. A beat = hawkish Fed pressure on rates; a miss = potential relief rally in growth stocks.
  • ADP employment (June): private-sector jobs proxy before Thursday’s official nonfarm payrolls.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (June): watch for any move above 50 (expansion territory).
  • Nike earnings (NKE): after today’s close. Revenue guidance is the key metric to watch.
  • 10-year yield: a sustained move above 4.45% could weigh on rate-sensitive tech and growth names at the open.
  • Japanese yen: further weakness past 163 could intensify intervention chatter and add volatility to currency and equity markets.