What is the best ETF for retail investors looking to bet on gold? And what lies ahead for the ultimate safe-haven asset in the coming months?
Money.it spoke with Patrick Kennedy, founder and managing partner of AllSource Investment Management in Hartford, a U.S.-based investment and wealth management firm.
Before this, he was the Alternative Investments Director at Morgan Stanley.
Kennedy is a frequent commentator on Bloomberg, Reuters and Schwab Network.
What Has Happened to Gold Prices and Gold ETFs Over the Past Month?
The rebound in gold prices has been hard to miss: gold futures have gained 11% over the past month, trading at around $4,424.70 an ounce, while spot gold is trading at $4,370.02 an ounce.
The rally in the ultimate safe-haven asset was fueled by the release of several U.S. economic data points, most notably July’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which unexpectedly showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, marking the first drop since February 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Economists had expected payrolls to increase by roughly 83,000.
The U.S. jobs report - together with downward revisions to previous months’ figures - prompted markets to price in roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting, scheduled for September 15-16.
Expectations for a Fed pause had already risen following the release of U.S. inflation data, which came in broadly in line with expectations.
Alongside gold prices traded on the COMEX, the metal’s rally has also boosted the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which has surged nearly 29% over the past month.
The ETF, however, remains 21% below the highs reached in March.
Another ETF worth highlighting is GLDM, which, according to Patrick Kennedy, is the vehicle retail investors should consider.
Kennedy told Money.it that he has been bullish on gold since 2024, and was therefore not deterred by the sell-off that unfolded in the first half of 2026.
Instead, he viewed the decline as a buying opportunity:
“We viewed the first half selloff as a buying opportunity rather than a top, and we bought and added to GLDM off the July technical bottom”.
The markets appear to have validated his call. After falling as much as 18% from the 10-year high reached above $5,300 an ounce in early 2026, gold posted its best weekly performance since January last Friday, while gold-mining stocks delivered their strongest five-session rally since 2008.
Gold ETFs for retail investors: Kennedy Prefers GLDM
The founder of AllSource Investment Management also outlined which ETF investors should use to gain exposure to the precious metal:
“On how retail actually gets this trade, the metal is the core position and the miners are the leverage. GLDM runs 10 basis points versus 40 for GLD, with IAU at 25 in between, so GLDM is the cheaper vehicle if you’re buying and holding while GLD is the better instrument if you want liquidity and options. Miners are a different animal”.
In other words, according to the former head of Morgan Stanley’s Alternative Investments division, GLDM should be the ETF of choice for most individual investors seeking exposure to gold.
When it comes to investing in miners - specifically gold-mining companies - Kennedy believes the strategy can make sense for investors seeking higher returns, provided they understand that it comes with greater volatility and, more broadly, greater risk.
Kennedy draws a clear distinction between physical gold ETFs and gold miners. In short, “for most individual investors, mining companies should represent a satellite position, not a core position”, the expert told Money.it.
GLDM is trading at $88.79 today, up 10% over the past month.
Gold Prices and the Fed: The Rally Is Not Yet a Bet on Rate Cuts
Kennedy then sought to clarify the narrative surrounding the Fed’s next fed funds rate decisions under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
The founder and managing partner of AllSource Investment Management disagrees with the view held by several analysts and investors who are increasingly considering the possibility that the Federal Reserve could return to cutting rates, following the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report and seemingly less concerning inflation data, which came in line with expectations (headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year, while core inflation increased 2.5%):
“My main point is that this is not a rate cut trade, at least not yet. The Fed has been parked at 3.50 to 3.75 all year and September was genuinely live for a hike right up until the payrolls miss. Odds of a September hike sit around 50 percent now, down from 60 before that report”.
Of course, the odds of a September rate hike fell further following the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Kennedy pointed out, however, that “what changed is that the hike tail risk came out of the market, not that cuts arrived”.
He remains bullish on gold prices.
The founder of AllSource Investment Management emphasized that, in his view, the sell-off that hit the metal following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war represented “a pause rather than a reversal.”
After all, a pullback was only natural given that gold prices “more than doubled between late 2023 and the January record high, positioning got extended, and it needed to work that off”.
Gold: A Fed Policy Mistake Could Fuel a Stagflation Scenario
That said, Kennedy believes that “nothing in the secular case actually broke. If anything, the drivers accelerated”.
For one, “Brent (crude) is near 90 with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and Iran holding conditions on reopening it, which keeps the forward inflation risk alive even with the July print cooling”.
In addition, “energy is up almost 15 percent year over year”, he observed, adding to inflation risks and the prospect of higher interest rates.
While higher rates typically increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, Kennedy believes the situation must also be viewed through the lens of rising risks of a monetary policy mistake and stagflation.
The piece I don’t think is being priced correctly is policy error risk. You have a Fed chair signaling higher for longer into a labor market that is visibly softening. That’s a stagflation setup, and gold tends to do well when the market starts questioning whether the Fed can hit both sides of its mandate.
Central Banks and Gold: PBOC Keeps Buying as ETF Flows Pick Up
As for the other bullish drivers, Kennedy noted that “central banks never stopped buying.”
Consider that “the PBOC added 19.9 tons in July, its largest month since October 2023 and its 21st straight month of accumulation.”
Meanwhile, inflows into gold ETFs have also accelerated: “ETF holdings have now risen five sessions in a row to a six week high, so this is professional money, not just retail chasing”.
