US stock futures climbed Monday morning. A pullback in crude oil prices lifted sentiment to start the week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.6%, trading near 52,390. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.57% to roughly 7,760, while Nasdaq 100 futures outperformed, rising 0.86% to near 30,170 on renewed strength in chip stocks — a pattern that echoed the tech-led rally covered in our recent premarket note on Nasdaq futures.

Oil Slides on Diplomacy Hopes

Energy prices did the heavy lifting. International benchmark Brent crude slipped toward $100.50 a barrel, and US crude eased to around $97.09, both falling for a fourth straight session — the longest such streak in three months. The move came despite the weekend’s escalation in the Middle East, where Iran-backed Houthi forces struck Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones on Saturday.

Traders are betting that stepped-up diplomacy, not further disruption, will define this week. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that oil flows “remain surprisingly strong” even after the latest round of attacks, a read-through that is helping calm inflation-linked jitters for now. Investors looking to track the swings directly can revisit our guide to the best ETFs for trading oil.

A Hawkish Fed Still Looms

The relief on energy comes with a catch: the Federal Reserve is not backing down. Last week the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range — its first increase since 2023 — a move Chair Kevin Warsh framed in unambiguous terms, saying inflation “remains unacceptably high” and that recent summer readings show “no meaningful improvement” in underlying trends — a tone we flagged as the key risk heading into Jackson Hole 2026.

Markets are listening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now price in a 53.1% probability of another hike at the October meeting, up sharply from 43.5% just a week earlier. That repricing has kept the 10-year Treasury yield hovering close to 5%, a level last touched in 2023, while gold has slipped back toward $4,350 an ounce after failing to hold $4,400 on Friday.

All Eyes on the Trump-Xi Summit

The week’s other swing factor sits in Washington. Chinese President Xi Jinping is due in the US capital September 23–25, with a formal meeting alongside President Trump set for Thursday, September 24. The agenda spans tariffs, technology export controls, rare earth minerals and Taiwan — with the informal understanding that China’s aggregate tariff burden stays near 20% likely to hold, since the broader US-China trade truce runs only through November 10.

Trump may add a second geopolitical data point to the week, saying he would “probably” be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. For the bigger picture on how the White House is recalibrating relations with Beijing, Moscow and Tehran at once, see our analysis on how Trump, Putin and Xi are redrawing the map.

What to Watch for the Open

Heading into the bell, here is the short list for traders:

  • Trump-Xi summit: talks in Washington run September 23–25, with the headline meeting Thursday.
  • Fed speakers: watch for any follow-up commentary reinforcing or softening Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone.
  • Economic calendar: a light data week, with Thursday’s new home sales report the main release — expected to rise about 2.6% to a 623,000 pace after July’s sharp decline.
  • Oil and the dollar: further downside in Brent and WTI would reinforce the risk-on tone; a reversal tied to Middle East headlines could just as quickly flip it.

None of this guarantees a smooth session. But for a market that closed out a third straight losing week for the Dow, a calmer energy tape and a marquee diplomatic meeting are enough, for now, to keep futures pointed higher into the open.